SportiveWorld

Forecast NBA 2026-27Los Angeles Lakers

Updated · 5 Nov

LA Lakers rises from 53 to 55 wins.

54.6projected wins44–65forecast interval53wins in 2025-26
projected winsforecast interval2025-26
Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic is the player who weighs most in this projection: +9.0 projected impact.

The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.

How the minutes are allocated

Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 5 Nov

PlayerMin/gameExpected gamesSeason minutes
Luka Doncic35.568.82,425
Austin Reaves30.672.62,205
Quentin Grimes24.974.91,853
Walker Kessler24.964.61,599
Jake LaRavia23.069.61,587
Sandro Mamukelashvili21.572.61,547
Collin Sexton20.967.31,394
Ziaire Williams20.955.61,153
Matisse Thybulle17.261.01,040
Jarred Vanderbilt15.748.3751
Jaden Hardy11.854.4639
Lawson Lovering19.325.1481
Cameron Carr12.835.6453
Bronny James9.644.1420
Kevon Looney10.738.6411
Chris Manon6.321.5135
Adou Thiero7.87.759
Allocated minutes
18,152
Not assigned to players
1,528
Team budget
19,680

Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.

The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.

Where the allocation comes from
PlayerProbability of an opening appearanceGames conditional on an opening appearanceMinutes method
Luka Doncic100.0 %68.8History and team context
Austin Reaves100.0 %72.6History and team context
Quentin Grimes100.0 %74.9History and team context
Walker Kessler100.0 %64.6History before the return
Jake LaRavia100.0 %69.6History and team context
Sandro Mamukelashvili100.0 %72.6History and team context
Collin Sexton100.0 %67.3History and team context
Ziaire Williams100.0 %55.6History and team context
Matisse Thybulle100.0 %61.0History and team context
Jarred Vanderbilt100.0 %48.3History and team context
Jaden Hardy100.0 %54.4History and team context
Lawson Lovering100.0 %25.1History and team context
Cameron Carr100.0 %35.6Historical average by draft band
Bronny James100.0 %44.1History and team context
Kevon Looney100.0 %38.6History and team context
Chris Manon100.0 %21.5History and team context
Adou Thiero48.9 %15.7History and team context

Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 50.0 to 54.6 wins.

48.058.054.614 Aug5 Nov
See every version
  • 14 Aug50.0 wins
  • 21 Aug+0.36 · trigger not stated50.3 wins
  • 22 Aug0.00 · roster change50.3 wins
  • 24 Aug-0.26 · roster change50.1 wins
  • 25 Aug0.00 · roster change50.1 wins
  • 26 Aug-0.06 · roster change50.0 wins
  • 27 Aug+0.12 · roster change50.1 wins
  • 28 Aug-0.76 · roster change49.4 wins
  • 29 Aug0.00 · roster change49.4 wins
  • 30 Aug-0.03 · roster change49.3 wins
  • 31 Aug+0.75 · roster change50.1 wins
  • 1 Sept-0.04 · roster change50.0 wins
  • 2 Sept0.00 · roster change50.0 wins
  • 3 Sept0.00 · roster change50.0 wins
  • 4 Sept+0.01 · roster change50.0 wins
  • 6 Sept0.00 · roster change50.0 wins
  • 8 Sept-0.01 · roster change50.0 wins
  • 9 Sept0.00 · roster change50.0 wins
  • 10 Sept0.00 · roster change50.0 wins
  • 11 Sept0.00 · roster change50.0 wins
  • 12 Sept-0.01 · roster change50.0 wins
  • 14 Sept+0.17 · roster change50.2 wins
  • 15 Sept0.00 · roster change50.2 wins
  • 16 Sept+0.01 · roster change50.2 wins
  • 17 Sept0.00 · roster change50.2 wins
  • 18 Sept0.00 · roster change50.2 wins
  • 19 Sept+0.01 · roster change50.2 wins
  • 20 Sept0.00 · roster change50.2 wins
  • 24 Sept0.00 · trigger not stated50.2 wins
  • 25 Sept+0.04 · roster change50.3 wins
  • 26 Sept+0.01 · roster change50.3 wins
  • 27 Sept-0.02 · roster change50.3 wins
  • 28 Sept0.00 · roster change50.3 wins
  • 29 Sept+0.09 · roster change50.3 wins
  • 30 Sept+0.01 · roster change50.4 wins
  • 1 Oct-0.11 · roster change50.2 wins
  • 2 Oct+0.17 · roster change50.4 wins
  • 3 Oct-0.11 · roster change50.3 wins
  • 4 Oct0.00 · roster change50.3 wins
  • 5 Oct+0.11 · roster change50.4 wins
  • 6 Oct0.00 · roster change50.4 wins
  • 7 Oct0.00 · roster change50.4 wins
  • 8 Oct0.00 · roster change50.4 wins
  • 9 Oct+0.01 · roster change50.4 wins
  • 11 Oct+0.02 · roster change50.4 wins
  • 12 Oct0.00 · roster change50.4 wins
  • 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated50.4 wins
  • 14 Oct+0.04 · roster change50.5 wins
  • 15 Oct+0.05 · roster change50.5 wins
  • 16 Oct0.00 · roster change50.5 wins
  • 17 Oct+0.01 · roster change50.5 wins
  • 18 Oct-0.07 · roster change50.5 wins
  • 19 Oct-0.38 · roster change50.1 wins
  • 20 Oct+0.28 · roster change50.4 wins
  • 21 Oct0.00 · roster change50.4 wins
  • 22 Oct+0.01 · roster change50.4 wins
  • 23 Oct+3.43 · roster change53.8 wins
  • 24 Oct+0.03 · roster change53.8 wins
  • 25 Oct+0.03 · roster change53.9 wins
  • 26 Oct-0.06 · roster change53.8 wins
  • 27 Oct+0.33 · roster change54.1 wins
  • 28 Oct+2.81 · roster change57.0 wins
  • 29 Oct-1.74 · roster change55.2 wins
  • 30 Oct+0.75 · roster change56.0 wins
  • 31 Oct-0.58 · roster change55.4 wins
  • 1 Nov-2.54 · roster change52.8 wins
  • 2 Nov+0.33 · roster change53.2 wins
  • 3 Nov+0.17 · roster change53.3 wins
  • 4 Nov+0.74 · roster change54.1 wins
  • 5 Nov+0.55 · roster change54.6 wins

This is how the model has done in other years

LA Lakers would win about 55 games; the model gives it a margin of 44 to 65 that is not yet well measured.

We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.

From here

Forecast

Game by game: what Forecast expects from each Los Angeles Lakers game

Professional DNA

How the team behind that number actually plays

What if…?

What happened when its highest-impact player was missing
Technical detail

Uncertainty

Nominal 80% range: 44–65. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

  • worse: 44 · wins · Nominal 80% range
  • better: 65 · wins · Nominal 80% range

How this model has performed

Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.

  • Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental

The real outcome

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

The question

How many games will Los Angeles Lakers win in 2026-27?

What this does not prove

  • Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
  • It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
  • The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.

The evidence

Los Angeles Lakers: 54.6 projected wins in 2026-27

54.6 winscompared against: 53 wins (+1.63 · +3 %) · Los Angeles Lakers in 2025-26, real wins

What has changed since the first version

54.6 winscompared against: 50.0 wins (+4.67 · +9 %) · Los Angeles Lakers, first version stored on 2026-08-14

Where it comes from

Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.

  • Source: 2026-11-05
  • Model input: 2026-11-05
  • Computation: 2026-11-05
  • This answer: 2026-11-06

Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season