SportiveWorld

Forecast NBA 2026-27Atlanta Hawks

Updated · 7 Nov

Atlanta drops from 46 to 45 wins.

45.5projected wins35–56forecast interval46wins in 2025-26
projected winsforecast interval2025-26
Dyson Daniels

Dyson Daniels

Jalen Johnson is the player who weighs most in this projection: +2.5 projected impact.

The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.

How the minutes are allocated

Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov

PlayerMin/gameExpected gamesSeason minutes
Dyson Daniels28.577.32,189
Nickeil Alexander-Walker27.977.32,143
Onyeka Okongwu26.675.82,005
Jalen Johnson31.360.91,892
CJ McCollum22.472.31,607
Luguentz Dort21.874.11,601
Aaron Wiggins19.272.51,378
Kingston Flemings19.961.11,210
Jock Landale16.955.9938
Corey Kispert14.851.7760
Mouhamed Gueye14.744.3646
Zuby Ejiofor12.742.7540
Asa Newell12.543.5539
Dorian Finney-Smith10.032.7325
RayJ Dennis8.818.4162
Jalen Wilson12.310.9132
Keshon Gilbert16.06.298
Henri Veesaar9.21.110
Allocated minutes
18,175
Not assigned to players
1,505
Team budget
19,680

Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.

The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.

Where the allocation comes from
PlayerProbability of an opening appearanceGames conditional on an opening appearanceMinutes method
Dyson Daniels100.0 %77.3History and team context
Nickeil Alexander-Walker100.0 %77.3History and team context
Onyeka Okongwu100.0 %75.8History and team context
Jalen Johnson100.0 %60.9History and team context
CJ McCollum100.0 %72.3History and team context
Luguentz Dort100.0 %74.1History and team context
Aaron Wiggins100.0 %72.5History and team context
Kingston Flemings100.0 %61.1Historical average by draft band
Jock Landale100.0 %55.9History and team context
Corey Kispert100.0 %51.7History and team context
Mouhamed Gueye81.7 %54.2History and team context
Zuby Ejiofor100.0 %42.7Historical average by draft band
Asa Newell100.0 %43.5History and team context
Dorian Finney-Smith100.0 %32.7History and team context
RayJ Dennis100.0 %18.4History and team context
Jalen Wilson81.7 %13.3History and team context
Keshon Gilbert24.8 %24.9History and team context
Henri Veesaar50.4 %2.2Historical average by draft band

Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 36.8 to 45.5 wins.

35.053.045.514 Aug7 Nov
See every version
  • 14 Aug36.8 wins
  • 21 Aug+1.06 · trigger not stated37.9 wins
  • 22 Aug0.00 · roster change37.9 wins
  • 24 Aug+0.28 · roster change38.1 wins
  • 25 Aug0.00 · roster change38.1 wins
  • 26 Aug+0.02 · roster change38.1 wins
  • 27 Aug+0.82 · roster change39.0 wins
  • 28 Aug-1.76 · roster change37.2 wins
  • 29 Aug0.00 · roster change37.2 wins
  • 30 Aug-0.02 · roster change37.2 wins
  • 31 Aug+0.53 · roster change37.7 wins
  • 1 Sept+0.12 · roster change37.8 wins
  • 2 Sept0.00 · roster change37.8 wins
  • 3 Sept0.00 · roster change37.8 wins
  • 4 Sept+0.02 · roster change37.9 wins
  • 6 Sept0.00 · roster change37.9 wins
  • 8 Sept-0.01 · roster change37.9 wins
  • 9 Sept0.00 · roster change37.9 wins
  • 10 Sept0.00 · roster change37.9 wins
  • 11 Sept0.00 · roster change37.9 wins
  • 12 Sept+0.43 · roster change38.3 wins
  • 14 Sept-0.08 · roster change38.2 wins
  • 15 Sept0.00 · roster change38.2 wins
  • 16 Sept+0.04 · roster change38.2 wins
  • 17 Sept0.00 · roster change38.2 wins
  • 18 Sept0.00 · roster change38.2 wins
  • 19 Sept0.00 · roster change38.2 wins
  • 20 Sept0.00 · roster change38.2 wins
  • 24 Sept+0.77 · trigger not stated39.0 wins
  • 25 Sept+0.26 · roster change39.3 wins
  • 26 Sept+0.01 · roster change39.3 wins
  • 27 Sept-0.01 · roster change39.3 wins
  • 28 Sept+0.04 · roster change39.3 wins
  • 29 Sept+0.02 · roster change39.3 wins
  • 30 Sept+0.01 · roster change39.3 wins
  • 1 Oct-0.40 · roster change38.9 wins
  • 2 Oct+0.34 · roster change39.3 wins
  • 3 Oct-0.29 · roster change39.0 wins
  • 4 Oct0.00 · roster change39.0 wins
  • 5 Oct+0.39 · roster change39.4 wins
  • 6 Oct0.00 · roster change39.4 wins
  • 7 Oct0.00 · roster change39.4 wins
  • 8 Oct+0.03 · roster change39.4 wins
  • 9 Oct+0.02 · roster change39.4 wins
  • 11 Oct+0.03 · roster change39.5 wins
  • 12 Oct0.00 · roster change39.5 wins
  • 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated39.5 wins
  • 14 Oct-0.09 · roster change39.4 wins
  • 15 Oct-0.01 · roster change39.4 wins
  • 16 Oct0.00 · roster change39.4 wins
  • 17 Oct-0.01 · roster change39.4 wins
  • 18 Oct-0.11 · roster change39.2 wins
  • 19 Oct-0.40 · roster change38.8 wins
  • 20 Oct0.00 · roster change38.8 wins
  • 21 Oct0.00 · roster change38.8 wins
  • 22 Oct+0.04 · roster change38.9 wins
  • 23 Oct+3.13 · roster change42.0 wins
  • 24 Oct+0.04 · roster change42.0 wins
  • 25 Oct+9.73 · roster change51.8 wins
  • 26 Oct-1.32 · roster change50.5 wins
  • 27 Oct-0.03 · roster change50.4 wins
  • 28 Oct-2.19 · roster change48.2 wins
  • 29 Oct+0.08 · roster change48.3 wins
  • 30 Oct-3.53 · roster change44.8 wins
  • 31 Oct+1.43 · roster change46.2 wins
  • 1 Nov-0.68 · roster change45.5 wins
  • 2 Nov-3.08 · roster change42.5 wins
  • 3 Nov+0.64 · roster change43.1 wins
  • 4 Nov+0.01 · roster change43.1 wins
  • 5 Nov+0.63 · roster change43.7 wins
  • 6 Nov+1.46 · roster change45.2 wins
  • 7 Nov+0.27 · roster change45.5 wins

This is how the model has done in other years

Atlanta would win about 45 games; the model gives it a margin of 35 to 56 that is not yet well measured.

We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.

From here

Forecast

Game by game: what Forecast expects from each Atlanta Hawks game

Professional DNA

How the team behind that number actually plays

What if…?

What happened when its highest-impact player was missing
Technical detail

Uncertainty

Nominal 80% range: 35–56. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

  • worse: 35 · wins · Nominal 80% range
  • better: 56 · wins · Nominal 80% range

How this model has performed

Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.

  • Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental

The real outcome

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

The question

How many games will Atlanta Hawks win in 2026-27?

What this does not prove

  • Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
  • It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
  • The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.

The evidence

Atlanta Hawks: 45.5 projected wins in 2026-27

45.5 winscompared against: 46 wins (-0.53 · -1 %) · Atlanta Hawks in 2025-26, real wins

What has changed since the first version

45.5 winscompared against: 36.8 wins (+8.68 · +24 %) · Atlanta Hawks, first version stored on 2026-08-14

Where it comes from

Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.

  • Source: 2026-11-07
  • Model input: 2026-11-07
  • Computation: 2026-11-07
  • This answer: 2026-11-07

Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season