Forecast NBA 2026-27Cleveland Cavaliers
● Updated · 7 Nov
Cleveland rises from 52 to 55 wins.
Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell is the player who weighs most in this projection: +3.9 projected impact.
The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.
How the minutes are allocated
Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov
| Player | Min/game | Expected games | Season minutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | 33.1 | 74.1 | 2,438 |
| James Harden | 33.0 | 72.8 | 2,384 |
| Evan Mobley | 32.0 | 74.1 | 2,354 |
| Jarrett Allen | 28.0 | 67.3 | 1,872 |
| Peyton Watson | 28.5 | 63.0 | 1,784 |
| Sam Merrill | 22.7 | 69.6 | 1,572 |
| Jaylon Tyson | 25.4 | 53.3 | 1,347 |
| Craig Porter Jr. | 17.7 | 59.3 | 1,041 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 14.5 | 61.7 | 885 |
| Meleek Thomas | 14.6 | 50.1 | 726 |
| Mario Hezonja | 13.1 | 53.6 | 700 |
| Thomas Bryant | 15.1 | 42.9 | 643 |
| Tristan Enaruna | 10.8 | 27.2 | 292 |
| Norchad Omier | 7.0 | 15.5 | 107 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. | 13.4 | 0.0 | 0 |
- Allocated minutes
- 18,145
- Not assigned to players
- 1,535
- Team budget
- 19,680
Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.
The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.
Where the allocation comes from
| Player | Probability of an opening appearance | Games conditional on an opening appearance | Minutes method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | 100.0 % | 74.1 | History and team context |
| James Harden | 100.0 % | 72.8 | History and team context |
| Evan Mobley | 100.0 % | 74.1 | History and team context |
| Jarrett Allen | 100.0 % | 67.3 | History and team context |
| Peyton Watson | 100.0 % | 63.0 | History and team context |
| Sam Merrill | 100.0 % | 69.6 | History and team context |
| Jaylon Tyson | 100.0 % | 53.3 | History and team context |
| Craig Porter Jr. | 100.0 % | 59.3 | History and team context |
| Tyrese Proctor | 100.0 % | 61.7 | History and team context |
| Meleek Thomas | 100.0 % | 50.1 | Historical average by draft band |
| Mario Hezonja | 100.0 % | 53.6 | History and team context |
| Thomas Bryant | 100.0 % | 42.9 | History and team context |
| Tristan Enaruna | 100.0 % | 27.2 | History and team context |
| Norchad Omier | 100.0 % | 15.5 | History and team context |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. | 0.0 % | 44.9 | History and team context |
Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 50.2 to 54.9 wins.
See every version
- 14 Aug50.2 wins
- 21 Aug+2.16 · trigger not stated52.3 wins
- 22 Aug0.00 · roster change52.3 wins
- 24 Aug-4.73 · roster change47.6 wins
- 25 Aug0.00 · roster change47.6 wins
- 26 Aug+0.04 · roster change47.6 wins
- 27 Aug-0.19 · roster change47.4 wins
- 28 Aug+0.95 · roster change48.4 wins
- 29 Aug+0.10 · roster change48.5 wins
- 30 Aug-0.01 · roster change48.5 wins
- 31 Aug-1.03 · roster change47.5 wins
- 1 Sept+5.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 2 Sept0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 3 Sept0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 4 Sept+0.01 · roster change52.5 wins
- 6 Sept0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 8 Sept0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 9 Sept0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 10 Sept0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 11 Sept0.00 · roster change52.5 wins
- 12 Sept-0.02 · roster change52.4 wins
- 14 Sept-0.22 · roster change52.2 wins
- 15 Sept0.00 · roster change52.2 wins
- 16 Sept+0.01 · roster change52.2 wins
- 17 Sept+0.01 · roster change52.2 wins
- 18 Sept0.00 · roster change52.2 wins
- 19 Sept0.00 · roster change52.2 wins
- 20 Sept0.00 · roster change52.2 wins
- 24 Sept+0.03 · trigger not stated52.3 wins
- 25 Sept+0.01 · roster change52.3 wins
- 26 Sept+0.01 · roster change52.3 wins
- 27 Sept-0.01 · roster change52.3 wins
- 28 Sept-0.29 · roster change52.0 wins
- 29 Sept+0.02 · roster change52.0 wins
- 30 Sept+0.01 · roster change52.0 wins
- 1 Oct+0.34 · roster change52.4 wins
- 2 Oct-5.84 · roster change46.5 wins
- 3 Oct+5.87 · roster change52.4 wins
- 4 Oct0.00 · roster change52.4 wins
- 5 Oct-0.33 · roster change52.1 wins
- 6 Oct0.00 · roster change52.1 wins
- 7 Oct0.00 · roster change52.1 wins
- 8 Oct+0.03 · roster change52.1 wins
- 9 Oct+0.01 · roster change52.1 wins
- 11 Oct+0.03 · roster change52.1 wins
- 12 Oct0.00 · roster change52.1 wins
- 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated52.1 wins
- 14 Oct+0.10 · roster change52.2 wins
- 15 Oct-0.02 · roster change52.2 wins
- 16 Oct0.00 · roster change52.2 wins
- 17 Oct0.00 · roster change52.2 wins
- 18 Oct-0.08 · roster change52.1 wins
- 19 Oct+0.10 · roster change52.2 wins
- 20 Oct+0.02 · roster change52.3 wins
- 21 Oct0.00 · roster change52.3 wins
- 22 Oct+0.02 · roster change52.3 wins
- 23 Oct-0.13 · roster change52.1 wins
- 24 Oct-2.18 · roster change50.0 wins
- 25 Oct+0.12 · roster change50.1 wins
- 26 Oct-1.06 · roster change49.0 wins
- 27 Oct-0.02 · roster change49.0 wins
- 28 Oct+5.02 · roster change54.0 wins
- 29 Oct+0.15 · roster change54.2 wins
- 30 Oct+0.20 · roster change54.4 wins
- 31 Oct-1.04 · roster change53.3 wins
- 1 Nov+0.36 · roster change53.7 wins
- 2 Nov+1.43 · roster change55.1 wins
- 3 Nov-0.63 · roster change54.5 wins
- 4 Nov-0.85 · roster change53.6 wins
- 5 Nov-0.54 · roster change53.1 wins
- 6 Nov-0.49 · roster change52.6 wins
- 7 Nov+2.26 · roster change54.9 wins
This is how the model has done in other years
Cleveland would win about 55 games; the model gives it a margin of 44 to 65 that is not yet well measured.
We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.
The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.
This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.
From here
Technical detail
Uncertainty
Nominal 80% range: 44–65. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- worse: 44 · wins · Nominal 80% range
- better: 65 · wins · Nominal 80% range
How this model has performed
Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.
- Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
- Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
- Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental
The real outcome
The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.
The question
How many games will Cleveland Cavaliers win in 2026-27?
What this does not prove
- Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
- It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
- The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.
The evidence
Cleveland Cavaliers: 54.9 projected wins in 2026-27
What has changed since the first version
Where it comes from
Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.
- Source: 2026-11-07
- Model input: 2026-11-07
- Computation: 2026-11-07
- This answer: 2026-11-07
Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season