SportiveWorld

Forecast NBA 2026-27Denver Nuggets

Updated · 7 Nov

Denver drops from 54 to 50 wins.

49.6projected wins39–60forecast interval54wins in 2025-26
projected winsforecast interval2025-26
Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic is the player who weighs most in this projection: +10.2 projected impact.

The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.

How the minutes are allocated

Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov

PlayerMin/gameExpected gamesSeason minutes
Nikola Jokic36.072.42,587
Jamal Murray32.974.32,432
Christian Braun27.070.61,889
DeMar DeRozan24.866.21,629
Aaron Gordon24.664.51,577
Cameron Johnson23.852.01,231
Marvin Bagley III18.265.61,188
Tyus Jones12.368.0829
Trevon Brazile13.462.1827
Ryan Nembhard15.747.3739
Julian Strawther15.142.3636
Bryce Hopkins10.651.2541
Cam Whitmore15.033.6500
Alpha Diallo11.940.4476
Zeke Nnaji11.337.3418
DaRon Holmes II9.535.0329
Spencer Jones19.015.0281
Allocated minutes
18,109
Not assigned to players
1,571
Team budget
19,680

Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.

The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.

Where the allocation comes from
PlayerProbability of an opening appearanceGames conditional on an opening appearanceMinutes method
Nikola Jokic100.0 %72.4History and team context
Jamal Murray100.0 %74.3History and team context
Christian Braun100.0 %70.6History and team context
DeMar DeRozan100.0 %66.2History and team context
Aaron Gordon100.0 %64.5History and team context
Cameron Johnson100.0 %52.0History and team context
Marvin Bagley III100.0 %65.6History and team context
Tyus Jones100.0 %68.0History and team context
Trevon Brazile100.0 %62.1Historical average by draft band
Ryan Nembhard100.0 %47.3History and team context
Julian Strawther81.7 %51.8History and team context
Bryce Hopkins100.0 %51.2Historical average by draft band
Cam Whitmore100.0 %33.6History and team context
Alpha Diallo100.0 %40.4History and team context
Zeke Nnaji100.0 %37.3History and team context
DaRon Holmes II100.0 %35.0History and team context
Spencer Jones81.7 %18.3History and team context

Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 54.7 to 49.6 wins.

44.057.049.614 Aug7 Nov
See every version
  • 14 Aug54.7 wins
  • 21 Aug-0.29 · trigger not stated54.4 wins
  • 22 Aug0.00 · roster change54.4 wins
  • 24 Aug-0.23 · roster change54.2 wins
  • 25 Aug0.00 · roster change54.2 wins
  • 26 Aug-0.05 · roster change54.1 wins
  • 27 Aug-0.06 · roster change54.1 wins
  • 28 Aug-0.44 · roster change53.6 wins
  • 29 Aug0.00 · roster change53.6 wins
  • 30 Aug+1.10 · roster change54.7 wins
  • 31 Aug+0.41 · roster change55.1 wins
  • 1 Sept-0.54 · roster change54.6 wins
  • 2 Sept-0.01 · roster change54.6 wins
  • 3 Sept0.00 · roster change54.6 wins
  • 4 Sept+0.01 · roster change54.6 wins
  • 6 Sept0.00 · roster change54.6 wins
  • 8 Sept-0.02 · roster change54.6 wins
  • 9 Sept+0.01 · roster change54.6 wins
  • 10 Sept-0.01 · roster change54.6 wins
  • 11 Sept0.00 · roster change54.6 wins
  • 12 Sept-0.01 · roster change54.6 wins
  • 14 Sept+0.14 · roster change54.7 wins
  • 15 Sept0.00 · roster change54.7 wins
  • 16 Sept+0.01 · roster change54.7 wins
  • 17 Sept+0.01 · roster change54.7 wins
  • 18 Sept0.00 · roster change54.7 wins
  • 19 Sept-0.08 · roster change54.7 wins
  • 20 Sept0.00 · roster change54.7 wins
  • 24 Sept-0.01 · trigger not stated54.6 wins
  • 25 Sept+0.04 · roster change54.7 wins
  • 26 Sept+0.01 · roster change54.7 wins
  • 27 Sept-0.01 · roster change54.7 wins
  • 28 Sept+0.05 · roster change54.7 wins
  • 29 Sept+0.18 · roster change54.9 wins
  • 30 Sept+0.01 · roster change54.9 wins
  • 1 Oct-1.16 · roster change53.8 wins
  • 2 Oct+0.45 · roster change54.2 wins
  • 3 Oct-1.20 · roster change53.0 wins
  • 4 Oct0.00 · roster change53.0 wins
  • 5 Oct+1.15 · roster change54.2 wins
  • 6 Oct0.00 · roster change54.2 wins
  • 7 Oct0.00 · roster change54.2 wins
  • 8 Oct0.00 · roster change54.2 wins
  • 9 Oct+0.01 · roster change54.2 wins
  • 11 Oct+0.02 · roster change54.2 wins
  • 12 Oct0.00 · roster change54.2 wins
  • 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated54.2 wins
  • 14 Oct+0.14 · roster change54.3 wins
  • 15 Oct-0.08 · roster change54.3 wins
  • 16 Oct0.00 · roster change54.3 wins
  • 17 Oct+0.01 · roster change54.3 wins
  • 18 Oct-0.06 · roster change54.2 wins
  • 19 Oct-0.25 · roster change54.0 wins
  • 20 Oct-0.06 · roster change53.9 wins
  • 21 Oct0.00 · roster change53.9 wins
  • 22 Oct-0.02 · roster change53.9 wins
  • 23 Oct-0.40 · roster change53.5 wins
  • 24 Oct-1.55 · roster change51.9 wins
  • 25 Oct+0.02 · roster change52.0 wins
  • 26 Oct-0.58 · roster change51.4 wins
  • 27 Oct-0.16 · roster change51.2 wins
  • 28 Oct-4.74 · roster change46.5 wins
  • 29 Oct-0.88 · roster change45.6 wins
  • 30 Oct+2.64 · roster change48.2 wins
  • 31 Oct+0.52 · roster change48.8 wins
  • 1 Nov+2.03 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 2 Nov0.00 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 3 Nov-0.48 · roster change50.3 wins
  • 4 Nov-2.20 · roster change48.1 wins
  • 5 Nov+0.64 · roster change48.7 wins
  • 6 Nov+1.02 · roster change49.8 wins
  • 7 Nov-0.16 · roster change49.6 wins

This is how the model has done in other years

Denver would win about 50 games; the model gives it a margin of 39 to 60 that is not yet well measured.

We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.

From here

Forecast

Game by game: what Forecast expects from each Denver Nuggets game

Professional DNA

How the team behind that number actually plays

What if…?

What happened when its highest-impact player was missing
Technical detail

Uncertainty

Nominal 80% range: 39–60. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

  • worse: 39 · wins · Nominal 80% range
  • better: 60 · wins · Nominal 80% range

How this model has performed

Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.

  • Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental

The real outcome

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

The question

How many games will Denver Nuggets win in 2026-27?

What this does not prove

  • Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
  • It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
  • The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.

The evidence

Denver Nuggets: 49.6 projected wins in 2026-27

49.6 winscompared against: 54 wins (-4.4 · -8 %) · Denver Nuggets in 2025-26, real wins

What has changed since the first version

49.6 winscompared against: 54.7 wins (-5.11 · -9 %) · Denver Nuggets, first version stored on 2026-08-14

Where it comes from

Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.

  • Source: 2026-11-07
  • Model input: 2026-11-07
  • Computation: 2026-11-07
  • This answer: 2026-11-07

Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season