SportiveWorld

Forecast NBA 2026-27Golden State Warriors

Updated · 7 Nov

Golden State rises from 37 to 46 wins.

46.3projected wins36–57forecast interval37wins in 2025-26
projected winsforecast interval2025-26
Brandin Podziemski

Brandin Podziemski

Stephen Curry is the player who weighs most in this projection: +5.1 projected impact.

The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.

How the minutes are allocated

Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov

PlayerMin/gameExpected gamesSeason minutes
Brandin Podziemski29.166.51,924
Stephen Curry29.057.01,641
De'Anthony Melton21.564.91,387
Will Richard19.072.71,373
Draymond Green22.860.11,358
Yaxel Lendeborg20.864.61,333
Moses Moody25.546.81,188
Gui Santos20.856.01,155
Gary Payton II15.168.11,017
Al Horford18.353.4967
Georges Niang15.859.2927
Jimmy Butler III29.828.5844
Charles Bassey14.848.9718
Graham Ike12.454.9675
Kristaps Porzingis22.826.9611
LJ Cryer13.045.5588
Malevy Leons8.834.5302
Allocated minutes
18,008
Not assigned to players
1,672
Team budget
19,680

Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.

The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.

Where the allocation comes from
PlayerProbability of an opening appearanceGames conditional on an opening appearanceMinutes method
Brandin Podziemski100.0 %66.5History and team context
Stephen Curry100.0 %57.0History and team context
De'Anthony Melton100.0 %64.9History and team context
Will Richard100.0 %72.7History and team context
Draymond Green100.0 %60.1History and team context
Yaxel Lendeborg100.0 %64.6Historical average by draft band
Moses Moody93.6 %50.0History and team context
Gui Santos100.0 %56.0History and team context
Gary Payton II100.0 %68.1History and team context
Al Horford100.0 %53.4History and team context
Georges Niang100.0 %59.2History before the return
Jimmy Butler III81.7 %34.9History and team context
Charles Bassey100.0 %48.9History and team context
Graham Ike100.0 %54.9History and team context
Kristaps Porzingis66.5 %40.5History and team context
LJ Cryer100.0 %45.5History and team context
Malevy Leons100.0 %34.5History and team context

Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 41.7 to 46.3 wins.

32.048.046.314 Aug7 Nov
See every version
  • 14 Aug41.7 wins
  • 21 Aug+0.06 · trigger not stated41.8 wins
  • 22 Aug0.00 · roster change41.8 wins
  • 24 Aug-2.34 · roster change39.4 wins
  • 25 Aug0.00 · roster change39.4 wins
  • 26 Aug0.00 · roster change39.4 wins
  • 27 Aug+0.23 · roster change39.6 wins
  • 28 Aug+1.94 · roster change41.6 wins
  • 29 Aug0.00 · roster change41.6 wins
  • 30 Aug-0.44 · roster change41.1 wins
  • 31 Aug-0.79 · roster change40.4 wins
  • 1 Sept+1.93 · roster change42.3 wins
  • 2 Sept0.00 · roster change42.3 wins
  • 3 Sept0.00 · roster change42.3 wins
  • 4 Sept+0.01 · roster change42.3 wins
  • 6 Sept0.00 · roster change42.3 wins
  • 8 Sept+0.01 · roster change42.3 wins
  • 9 Sept0.00 · roster change42.3 wins
  • 10 Sept0.00 · roster change42.3 wins
  • 11 Sept0.00 · roster change42.3 wins
  • 12 Sept-0.01 · roster change42.3 wins
  • 14 Sept+0.20 · roster change42.5 wins
  • 15 Sept0.00 · roster change42.5 wins
  • 16 Sept+0.02 · roster change42.5 wins
  • 17 Sept0.00 · roster change42.5 wins
  • 18 Sept0.00 · roster change42.5 wins
  • 19 Sept+0.01 · roster change42.5 wins
  • 20 Sept0.00 · roster change42.5 wins
  • 24 Sept0.00 · trigger not stated42.5 wins
  • 25 Sept+0.03 · roster change42.5 wins
  • 26 Sept+0.02 · roster change42.6 wins
  • 27 Sept-0.02 · roster change42.5 wins
  • 28 Sept+0.04 · roster change42.6 wins
  • 29 Sept-0.46 · roster change42.1 wins
  • 30 Sept+0.01 · roster change42.1 wins
  • 1 Oct+0.26 · roster change42.4 wins
  • 2 Oct+0.17 · roster change42.6 wins
  • 3 Oct-0.13 · roster change42.4 wins
  • 4 Oct0.00 · roster change42.4 wins
  • 5 Oct-0.26 · roster change42.2 wins
  • 6 Oct0.00 · roster change42.2 wins
  • 7 Oct0.00 · roster change42.2 wins
  • 8 Oct-0.01 · roster change42.2 wins
  • 9 Oct+0.02 · roster change42.2 wins
  • 11 Oct+0.02 · roster change42.2 wins
  • 12 Oct0.00 · roster change42.2 wins
  • 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated42.2 wins
  • 14 Oct-0.46 · roster change41.8 wins
  • 15 Oct-0.01 · roster change41.7 wins
  • 16 Oct0.00 · roster change41.7 wins
  • 17 Oct0.00 · roster change41.7 wins
  • 18 Oct-0.08 · roster change41.7 wins
  • 19 Oct+0.43 · roster change42.1 wins
  • 20 Oct-0.11 · roster change42.0 wins
  • 21 Oct0.00 · roster change42.0 wins
  • 22 Oct+0.03 · roster change42.0 wins
  • 23 Oct-4.12 · roster change37.9 wins
  • 24 Oct+0.02 · roster change37.9 wins
  • 25 Oct-2.36 · roster change35.5 wins
  • 26 Oct-1.66 · roster change33.9 wins
  • 27 Oct-0.05 · roster change33.8 wins
  • 28 Oct+4.66 · roster change38.5 wins
  • 29 Oct+0.07 · roster change38.6 wins
  • 30 Oct+2.96 · roster change41.5 wins
  • 31 Oct+0.74 · roster change42.3 wins
  • 1 Nov+3.05 · roster change45.3 wins
  • 2 Nov+0.29 · roster change45.6 wins
  • 3 Nov+0.63 · roster change46.2 wins
  • 4 Nov-1.78 · roster change44.5 wins
  • 5 Nov+0.17 · roster change44.6 wins
  • 6 Nov0.00 · roster change44.6 wins
  • 7 Nov+1.65 · roster change46.3 wins

This is how the model has done in other years

Golden State would win about 46 games; the model gives it a margin of 36 to 57 that is not yet well measured.

We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.

From here

Forecast

Game by game: what Forecast expects from each Golden State Warriors game

Professional DNA

How the team behind that number actually plays

What if…?

What happened when its highest-impact player was missing
Technical detail

Uncertainty

Nominal 80% range: 36–57. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

  • worse: 36 · wins · Nominal 80% range
  • better: 57 · wins · Nominal 80% range

How this model has performed

Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.

  • Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental

The real outcome

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

The question

How many games will Golden State Warriors win in 2026-27?

What this does not prove

  • Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
  • It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
  • The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.

The evidence

Golden State Warriors: 46.3 projected wins in 2026-27

46.3 winscompared against: 37 wins (+9.28 · +25 %) · Golden State Warriors in 2025-26, real wins

What has changed since the first version

46.3 winscompared against: 41.7 wins (+4.59 · +11 %) · Golden State Warriors, first version stored on 2026-08-14

Where it comes from

Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.

  • Source: 2026-11-07
  • Model input: 2026-11-07
  • Computation: 2026-11-07
  • This answer: 2026-11-07

Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season