SportiveWorld

Forecast NBA 2026-27Indiana Pacers

Updated · 7 Nov

Indiana rises from 19 to 32 wins.

31.9projected wins21–42forecast interval19wins in 2025-26
projected winsforecast interval2025-26
Pascal Siakam

Pascal Siakam

Tyrese Haliburton is the player who weighs most in this projection: +6.1 projected impact.

The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.

How the minutes are allocated

Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov

PlayerMin/gameExpected gamesSeason minutes
Pascal Siakam28.068.11,893
Jarace Walker23.574.51,739
Andrew Nembhard27.562.71,710
Kelly Oubre Jr.26.260.41,571
Aaron Nesmith23.459.51,385
Jay Huff18.766.91,246
Tyrese Haliburton27.146.21,245
Ivica Zubac25.746.81,196
Jalen Slawson20.054.31,077
Quenton Jackson16.764.21,067
Obi Toppin17.450.3869
Ben Sheppard18.338.2695
Kobe Brown14.147.6667
Braden Smith13.145.3591
Larry Nance Jr.10.055.2546
Johnny Furphy16.629.1480
T.J. McConnell15.711.2175
Allocated minutes
18,152
Not assigned to players
1,528
Team budget
19,680

Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.

The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.

Where the allocation comes from
PlayerProbability of an opening appearanceGames conditional on an opening appearanceMinutes method
Pascal Siakam100.0 %68.1History and team context
Jarace Walker100.0 %74.5History and team context
Andrew Nembhard100.0 %62.7History and team context
Kelly Oubre Jr.100.0 %60.4History and team context
Aaron Nesmith100.0 %59.5History and team context
Jay Huff100.0 %66.9History and team context
Tyrese Haliburton100.0 %46.2History before the return
Ivica Zubac100.0 %46.8History and team context
Jalen Slawson100.0 %54.3History and team context
Quenton Jackson100.0 %64.2History and team context
Obi Toppin100.0 %50.3History and team context
Ben Sheppard100.0 %38.2History and team context
Kobe Brown100.0 %47.6History and team context
Braden Smith100.0 %45.3Historical average by draft band
Larry Nance Jr.100.0 %55.2History and team context
Johnny Furphy66.5 %43.7History and team context
T.J. McConnell81.7 %13.7History and team context

Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 34.7 to 31.9 wins.

28.039.031.914 Aug7 Nov
See every version
  • 14 Aug34.7 wins
  • 21 Aug+0.30 · trigger not stated35.0 wins
  • 22 Aug0.00 · roster change35.0 wins
  • 24 Aug+0.26 · roster change35.3 wins
  • 25 Aug0.00 · roster change35.3 wins
  • 26 Aug-0.02 · roster change35.2 wins
  • 27 Aug-0.19 · roster change35.0 wins
  • 28 Aug-1.39 · roster change33.6 wins
  • 29 Aug0.00 · roster change33.6 wins
  • 30 Aug-0.01 · roster change33.6 wins
  • 31 Aug+1.50 · roster change35.1 wins
  • 1 Sept-0.32 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 2 Sept0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 3 Sept0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 4 Sept+0.02 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 6 Sept0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 8 Sept0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 9 Sept0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 10 Sept0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 11 Sept0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 12 Sept-0.03 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 14 Sept-0.08 · roster change34.7 wins
  • 15 Sept0.00 · roster change34.7 wins
  • 16 Sept+0.03 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 17 Sept0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 18 Sept0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 19 Sept0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 20 Sept0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 24 Sept+0.03 · trigger not stated34.8 wins
  • 25 Sept+0.02 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 26 Sept+0.01 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 27 Sept-0.02 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 28 Sept+0.04 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 29 Sept-0.10 · roster change34.7 wins
  • 30 Sept+0.01 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 1 Oct-0.68 · roster change34.1 wins
  • 2 Oct+0.30 · roster change34.4 wins
  • 3 Oct-0.27 · roster change34.1 wins
  • 4 Oct0.00 · roster change34.1 wins
  • 5 Oct+0.68 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 6 Oct0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 7 Oct0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 8 Oct+0.03 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 9 Oct+0.02 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 11 Oct+0.02 · roster change34.9 wins
  • 12 Oct0.00 · roster change34.9 wins
  • 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated34.9 wins
  • 14 Oct+0.09 · roster change34.9 wins
  • 15 Oct-0.02 · roster change34.9 wins
  • 16 Oct0.00 · roster change34.9 wins
  • 17 Oct-0.01 · roster change34.9 wins
  • 18 Oct-0.08 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 19 Oct-0.27 · roster change34.6 wins
  • 20 Oct+0.03 · roster change34.6 wins
  • 21 Oct0.00 · roster change34.6 wins
  • 22 Oct-0.01 · roster change34.6 wins
  • 23 Oct+1.87 · roster change36.5 wins
  • 24 Oct+0.01 · roster change36.5 wins
  • 25 Oct-4.32 · roster change32.1 wins
  • 26 Oct+0.02 · roster change32.2 wins
  • 27 Oct+5.54 · roster change37.7 wins
  • 28 Oct-0.97 · roster change36.7 wins
  • 29 Oct+0.51 · roster change37.2 wins
  • 30 Oct-1.58 · roster change35.7 wins
  • 31 Oct-0.30 · roster change35.4 wins
  • 1 Nov-3.07 · roster change32.3 wins
  • 2 Nov-0.24 · roster change32.0 wins
  • 3 Nov-2.78 · roster change29.3 wins
  • 4 Nov+0.59 · roster change29.9 wins
  • 5 Nov+0.92 · roster change30.8 wins
  • 6 Nov+1.13 · roster change31.9 wins
  • 7 Nov-0.05 · roster change31.9 wins

This is how the model has done in other years

Indiana would win about 32 games; the model gives it a margin of 21 to 42 that is not yet well measured.

We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.

From here

Forecast

Game by game: what Forecast expects from each Indiana Pacers game

Professional DNA

How the team behind that number actually plays

What if…?

What happened when its highest-impact player was missing
Technical detail

Uncertainty

Nominal 80% range: 21–42. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

  • worse: 21 · wins · Nominal 80% range
  • better: 42 · wins · Nominal 80% range

How this model has performed

Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.

  • Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental

The real outcome

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

The question

How many games will Indiana Pacers win in 2026-27?

What this does not prove

  • Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
  • It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
  • The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.

The evidence

Indiana Pacers: 31.9 projected wins in 2026-27

31.9 winscompared against: 19 wins (+12.86 · +68 %) · Indiana Pacers in 2025-26, real wins

What has changed since the first version

31.9 winscompared against: 34.7 wins (-2.83 · -8 %) · Indiana Pacers, first version stored on 2026-08-14

Where it comes from

Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.

  • Source: 2026-11-07
  • Model input: 2026-11-07
  • Computation: 2026-11-07
  • This answer: 2026-11-07

Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season