SportiveWorld

Forecast NBA 2026-27LA Clippers

Updated · 7 Nov

LA Clippers drops from 42 to 28 wins.

28.3projected wins18–39forecast interval42wins in 2025-26
projected winsforecast interval2025-26
Darius Garland

Darius Garland

Darius Garland is the player who weighs most in this projection: +0.5 projected impact.

The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.

How the minutes are allocated

Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov

PlayerMin/gameExpected gamesSeason minutes
Darius Garland29.070.02,014
Kris Dunn24.773.31,799
Keaton Wagler25.363.41,596
Derrick Jones Jr.24.864.61,593
Rui Hachimura25.861.61,578
Kobe Sanders19.271.71,363
Brook Lopez19.369.01,323
Isaiah Jackson18.664.31,188
Gradey Dick15.670.31,091
Baba Miller12.058.3697
Bradley Beal22.526.3588
Max Strus18.830.1561
Jalen Pickett14.039.0544
Cam Christie11.343.2486
Brandon Ingram30.315.3461
Nick Martinelli9.543.0404
Blake Wesley12.232.1388
Jordan Miller21.615.0322
Yanic Konan Niederhauser12.710.7135
Allocated minutes
18,131
Not assigned to players
1,549
Team budget
19,680

Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.

The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.

Where the allocation comes from
PlayerProbability of an opening appearanceGames conditional on an opening appearanceMinutes method
Darius Garland100.0 %70.0History and team context
Kris Dunn100.0 %73.3History and team context
Keaton Wagler100.0 %63.4Historical average by draft band
Derrick Jones Jr.100.0 %64.6History and team context
Rui Hachimura100.0 %61.6History and team context
Kobe Sanders100.0 %71.7History and team context
Brook Lopez100.0 %69.0History and team context
Isaiah Jackson100.0 %64.3History and team context
Gradey Dick100.0 %70.3History and team context
Baba Miller100.0 %58.3Historical average by draft band
Bradley Beal35.6 %74.0History before the return
Max Strus100.0 %30.1History before the return
Jalen Pickett100.0 %39.0History and team context
Cam Christie100.0 %43.2History and team context
Brandon Ingram93.6 %16.3History and team context
Nick Martinelli100.0 %43.0Historical average by draft band
Blake Wesley100.0 %32.1History and team context
Jordan Miller81.7 %18.4History and team context
Yanic Konan Niederhauser66.5 %16.1History and team context

Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 41.3 to 28.3 wins.

27.046.028.314 Aug7 Nov
See every version
  • 14 Aug41.3 wins
  • 21 Aug-0.75 · trigger not stated40.6 wins
  • 22 Aug0.00 · roster change40.6 wins
  • 24 Aug+4.14 · roster change44.7 wins
  • 25 Aug0.00 · roster change44.7 wins
  • 26 Aug-0.02 · roster change44.7 wins
  • 27 Aug-0.41 · roster change44.3 wins
  • 28 Aug-0.14 · roster change44.1 wins
  • 29 Aug+0.01 · roster change44.2 wins
  • 30 Aug-0.04 · roster change44.1 wins
  • 31 Aug+0.61 · roster change44.7 wins
  • 1 Sept-4.17 · roster change40.6 wins
  • 2 Sept0.00 · roster change40.6 wins
  • 3 Sept0.00 · roster change40.6 wins
  • 4 Sept+0.01 · roster change40.6 wins
  • 6 Sept0.00 · roster change40.6 wins
  • 8 Sept0.00 · roster change40.6 wins
  • 9 Sept0.00 · roster change40.6 wins
  • 10 Sept0.00 · roster change40.6 wins
  • 11 Sept0.00 · roster change40.6 wins
  • 12 Sept-0.22 · roster change40.4 wins
  • 14 Sept-8.19 · roster change32.2 wins
  • 15 Sept0.00 · roster change32.2 wins
  • 16 Sept+0.02 · roster change32.2 wins
  • 17 Sept+0.01 · roster change32.2 wins
  • 18 Sept0.00 · roster change32.2 wins
  • 19 Sept0.00 · roster change32.2 wins
  • 20 Sept0.00 · roster change32.2 wins
  • 24 Sept-0.02 · trigger not stated32.2 wins
  • 25 Sept+0.06 · roster change32.2 wins
  • 26 Sept+0.02 · roster change32.3 wins
  • 27 Sept-0.03 · roster change32.2 wins
  • 28 Sept+0.04 · roster change32.3 wins
  • 29 Sept+0.02 · roster change32.3 wins
  • 30 Sept+0.01 · roster change32.3 wins
  • 1 Oct+0.51 · roster change32.8 wins
  • 2 Oct+0.15 · roster change33.0 wins
  • 3 Oct-0.10 · roster change32.9 wins
  • 4 Oct0.00 · roster change32.9 wins
  • 5 Oct-0.52 · roster change32.3 wins
  • 6 Oct0.00 · roster change32.3 wins
  • 7 Oct0.00 · roster change32.3 wins
  • 8 Oct-0.01 · roster change32.3 wins
  • 9 Oct+0.02 · roster change32.3 wins
  • 11 Oct-0.02 · roster change32.3 wins
  • 12 Oct0.00 · roster change32.3 wins
  • 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated32.3 wins
  • 14 Oct-0.10 · roster change32.2 wins
  • 15 Oct-0.02 · roster change32.2 wins
  • 16 Oct0.00 · roster change32.2 wins
  • 17 Oct+0.01 · roster change32.2 wins
  • 18 Oct-0.07 · roster change32.1 wins
  • 19 Oct+0.32 · roster change32.5 wins
  • 20 Oct-0.11 · roster change32.4 wins
  • 21 Oct0.00 · roster change32.4 wins
  • 22 Oct+0.06 · roster change32.4 wins
  • 23 Oct+4.81 · roster change37.2 wins
  • 24 Oct+0.03 · roster change37.3 wins
  • 25 Oct-0.29 · roster change37.0 wins
  • 26 Oct-0.03 · roster change36.9 wins
  • 27 Oct+0.68 · roster change37.6 wins
  • 28 Oct-1.23 · roster change36.4 wins
  • 29 Oct+0.07 · roster change36.5 wins
  • 30 Oct-2.39 · roster change34.1 wins
  • 31 Oct-0.58 · roster change33.5 wins
  • 1 Nov-2.87 · roster change30.6 wins
  • 2 Nov-0.25 · roster change30.4 wins
  • 3 Nov-1.02 · roster change29.3 wins
  • 4 Nov+0.17 · roster change29.5 wins
  • 5 Nov-0.38 · roster change29.1 wins
  • 6 Nov-0.90 · roster change28.2 wins
  • 7 Nov+0.08 · roster change28.3 wins

This is how the model has done in other years

LA Clippers would win about 28 games; the model gives it a margin of 18 to 39 that is not yet well measured.

We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.

From here

Forecast

Game by game: what Forecast expects from each LA Clippers game

Professional DNA

How the team behind that number actually plays

What if…?

What happened when its highest-impact player was missing
Technical detail

Uncertainty

Nominal 80% range: 18–39. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

  • worse: 18 · wins · Nominal 80% range
  • better: 39 · wins · Nominal 80% range

How this model has performed

Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.

  • Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental

The real outcome

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

The question

How many games will LA Clippers win in 2026-27?

What this does not prove

  • Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
  • It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
  • The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.

The evidence

LA Clippers: 28.3 projected wins in 2026-27

28.3 winscompared against: 42 wins (-13.69 · -33 %) · LA Clippers in 2025-26, real wins

What has changed since the first version

28.3 winscompared against: 41.3 wins (-13.02 · -32 %) · LA Clippers, first version stored on 2026-08-14

Where it comes from

Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.

  • Source: 2026-11-07
  • Model input: 2026-11-07
  • Computation: 2026-11-07
  • This answer: 2026-11-07

Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season