Forecast NBA 2026-27New Orleans Pelicans
● Updated · 7 Nov
New Orleans rises from 26 to 37 wins.
Trey Murphy III
Zion Williamson is the player who weighs most in this projection: +3.0 projected impact.
The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.
How the minutes are allocated
Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov
| Player | Min/game | Expected games | Season minutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III | 29.5 | 69.1 | 2,024 |
| Zion Williamson | 26.4 | 71.0 | 1,860 |
| Saddiq Bey | 25.5 | 70.6 | 1,786 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 22.9 | 77.8 | 1,773 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 23.2 | 72.5 | 1,673 |
| Derik Queen | 21.3 | 77.1 | 1,630 |
| Herbert Jones | 20.4 | 68.8 | 1,395 |
| Dejounte Murray | 24.8 | 48.2 | 1,186 |
| Yves Missi | 16.7 | 59.5 | 984 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 13.6 | 63.5 | 855 |
| Jordan Poole | 17.0 | 44.1 | 744 |
| Bryce McGowens | 16.0 | 41.0 | 652 |
| Trendon Watford | 13.4 | 47.7 | 634 |
| Julian Reese | 22.5 | 24.2 | 540 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 7.1 | 23.3 | 163 |
| AJ Johnson | 6.2 | 25.9 | 159 |
| Jaron Pierre Jr. | 9.3 | 10.0 | 93 |
- Allocated minutes
- 18,151
- Not assigned to players
- 1,529
- Team budget
- 19,680
Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.
The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.
Where the allocation comes from
| Player | Probability of an opening appearance | Games conditional on an opening appearance | Minutes method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III | 100.0 % | 69.1 | History and team context |
| Zion Williamson | 100.0 % | 71.0 | History and team context |
| Saddiq Bey | 100.0 % | 70.6 | History and team context |
| Jeremiah Fears | 100.0 % | 77.8 | History and team context |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 100.0 % | 72.5 | History and team context |
| Derik Queen | 100.0 % | 77.1 | History and team context |
| Herbert Jones | 100.0 % | 68.8 | History and team context |
| Dejounte Murray | 100.0 % | 48.2 | History before the return |
| Yves Missi | 100.0 % | 59.5 | History and team context |
| Karlo Matkovic | 100.0 % | 63.5 | History and team context |
| Jordan Poole | 100.0 % | 44.1 | History and team context |
| Bryce McGowens | 100.0 % | 41.0 | History and team context |
| Trendon Watford | 100.0 % | 47.7 | History and team context |
| Julian Reese | 100.0 % | 24.2 | History and team context |
| DeAndre Jordan | 100.0 % | 23.3 | History before the return |
| AJ Johnson | 100.0 % | 25.9 | History and team context |
| Jaron Pierre Jr. | 50.4 % | 19.8 | Historical average by draft band |
Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 34.4 to 36.5 wins.
See every version
- 14 Aug34.4 wins
- 21 Aug-0.46 · trigger not stated33.9 wins
- 22 Aug0.00 · roster change33.9 wins
- 24 Aug+2.08 · roster change36.0 wins
- 25 Aug0.00 · roster change36.0 wins
- 26 Aug+0.01 · roster change36.0 wins
- 27 Aug-0.42 · roster change35.6 wins
- 28 Aug-0.42 · roster change35.2 wins
- 29 Aug+0.01 · roster change35.2 wins
- 30 Aug-0.04 · roster change35.1 wins
- 31 Aug+0.68 · roster change35.8 wins
- 1 Sept-2.08 · roster change33.7 wins
- 2 Sept0.00 · roster change33.7 wins
- 3 Sept0.00 · roster change33.7 wins
- 4 Sept+0.01 · roster change33.7 wins
- 6 Sept0.00 · roster change33.7 wins
- 8 Sept+1.09 · roster change34.8 wins
- 9 Sept0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
- 10 Sept+0.08 · roster change34.9 wins
- 11 Sept0.00 · roster change34.9 wins
- 12 Sept+0.26 · roster change35.2 wins
- 14 Sept+0.12 · roster change35.3 wins
- 15 Sept0.00 · roster change35.3 wins
- 16 Sept+0.02 · roster change35.3 wins
- 17 Sept0.00 · roster change35.3 wins
- 18 Sept0.00 · roster change35.3 wins
- 19 Sept+0.01 · roster change35.3 wins
- 20 Sept0.00 · roster change35.3 wins
- 24 Sept-0.02 · trigger not stated35.3 wins
- 25 Sept-1.09 · roster change34.2 wins
- 26 Sept+0.02 · roster change34.2 wins
- 27 Sept-0.03 · roster change34.2 wins
- 28 Sept-0.19 · roster change34.0 wins
- 29 Sept+0.09 · roster change34.1 wins
- 30 Sept+0.01 · roster change34.1 wins
- 1 Oct+0.35 · roster change34.5 wins
- 2 Oct+0.16 · roster change34.6 wins
- 3 Oct-0.11 · roster change34.5 wins
- 4 Oct0.00 · roster change34.5 wins
- 5 Oct-0.36 · roster change34.1 wins
- 6 Oct0.00 · roster change34.1 wins
- 7 Oct0.00 · roster change34.1 wins
- 8 Oct-0.01 · roster change34.1 wins
- 9 Oct+0.02 · roster change34.2 wins
- 11 Oct+0.02 · roster change34.2 wins
- 12 Oct0.00 · roster change34.2 wins
- 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated34.2 wins
- 14 Oct+0.14 · roster change34.3 wins
- 15 Oct-0.05 · roster change34.3 wins
- 16 Oct0.00 · roster change34.3 wins
- 17 Oct+0.04 · roster change34.3 wins
- 18 Oct-0.08 · roster change34.2 wins
- 19 Oct+0.04 · roster change34.3 wins
- 20 Oct-0.11 · roster change34.2 wins
- 21 Oct0.00 · roster change34.2 wins
- 22 Oct+0.03 · roster change34.2 wins
- 23 Oct-1.48 · roster change32.7 wins
- 24 Oct+0.02 · roster change32.7 wins
- 25 Oct-1.11 · roster change31.6 wins
- 26 Oct+0.49 · roster change32.1 wins
- 27 Oct-0.01 · roster change32.1 wins
- 28 Oct+0.73 · roster change32.8 wins
- 29 Oct+0.09 · roster change32.9 wins
- 30 Oct-2.21 · roster change30.7 wins
- 31 Oct+0.65 · roster change31.4 wins
- 1 Nov+0.53 · roster change31.9 wins
- 2 Nov+2.85 · roster change34.7 wins
- 3 Nov+0.65 · roster change35.4 wins
- 4 Nov+1.15 · roster change36.5 wins
- 5 Nov+0.45 · roster change37.0 wins
- 6 Nov-0.08 · roster change36.9 wins
- 7 Nov-0.36 · roster change36.5 wins
This is how the model has done in other years
New Orleans would win about 37 games; the model gives it a margin of 26 to 47 that is not yet well measured.
We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.
The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.
This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.
From here
Technical detail
Uncertainty
Nominal 80% range: 26–47. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- worse: 26 · wins · Nominal 80% range
- better: 47 · wins · Nominal 80% range
How this model has performed
Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.
- Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
- Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
- Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental
The real outcome
The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.
The question
How many games will New Orleans Pelicans win in 2026-27?
What this does not prove
- Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
- It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
- The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.
The evidence
New Orleans Pelicans: 36.5 projected wins in 2026-27
What has changed since the first version
Where it comes from
Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.
- Source: 2026-11-07
- Model input: 2026-11-07
- Computation: 2026-11-07
- This answer: 2026-11-07
Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season