SportiveWorld

Forecast NBA 2026-27Philadelphia 76ers

Updated · 7 Nov

Philadelphia rises from 45 to 50 wins.

50.4projected wins40–61forecast interval45wins in 2025-26
projected winsforecast interval2025-26
Tyrese Maxey

Tyrese Maxey

Tyrese Maxey is the player who weighs most in this projection: +4.1 projected impact.

The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.

How the minutes are allocated

Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov

PlayerMin/gameExpected gamesSeason minutes
Tyrese Maxey34.076.02,566
VJ Edgecombe30.173.92,209
Jaylen Brown30.270.32,110
LeBron James26.759.71,582
Joel Embiid26.556.61,491
Anfernee Simons20.671.11,456
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope16.768.81,141
Dean Wade18.960.61,139
Adem Bona15.567.91,047
Dominick Barlow21.347.81,011
Labaron Philon Jr.12.747.3597
Jabari Walker11.451.5584
Justin Edwards14.038.0527
Rayan Rupert14.228.9409
Caleb Love15.910.6167
Tacko Fall9.114.1127
Ariel Hukporti9.51.110
Allocated minutes
18,173
Not assigned to players
1,507
Team budget
19,680

Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.

The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.

Where the allocation comes from
PlayerProbability of an opening appearanceGames conditional on an opening appearanceMinutes method
Tyrese Maxey100.0 %76.0History and team context
VJ Edgecombe100.0 %73.9History and team context
Jaylen Brown100.0 %70.3History and team context
LeBron James100.0 %59.7History and team context
Joel Embiid100.0 %56.6History and team context
Anfernee Simons100.0 %71.1History and team context
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope100.0 %68.8History and team context
Dean Wade100.0 %60.6History and team context
Adem Bona100.0 %67.9History and team context
Dominick Barlow93.6 %51.1History and team context
Labaron Philon Jr.100.0 %47.3Historical average by draft band
Jabari Walker100.0 %51.5History and team context
Justin Edwards100.0 %38.0History and team context
Rayan Rupert100.0 %28.9History and team context
Caleb Love81.7 %13.0History and team context
Tacko Fall100.0 %14.1History and team context
Ariel Hukporti66.5 %1.7History and team context

Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 43.1 to 50.4 wins.

38.055.050.414 Aug7 Nov
See every version
  • 14 Aug43.1 wins
  • 21 Aug+1.04 · trigger not stated44.1 wins
  • 22 Aug0.00 · roster change44.1 wins
  • 24 Aug-4.23 · roster change39.9 wins
  • 25 Aug0.00 · roster change39.9 wins
  • 26 Aug-0.02 · roster change39.9 wins
  • 27 Aug-0.47 · roster change39.4 wins
  • 28 Aug+4.80 · roster change44.2 wins
  • 29 Aug0.00 · roster change44.2 wins
  • 30 Aug-0.01 · roster change44.2 wins
  • 31 Aug-4.32 · roster change39.9 wins
  • 1 Sept+4.52 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 2 Sept+0.04 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 3 Sept0.00 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 4 Sept+0.01 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 6 Sept0.00 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 8 Sept0.00 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 9 Sept-0.08 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 10 Sept-0.01 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 11 Sept0.00 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 12 Sept-0.01 · roster change44.3 wins
  • 14 Sept-0.21 · roster change44.1 wins
  • 15 Sept0.00 · roster change44.1 wins
  • 16 Sept+0.02 · roster change44.1 wins
  • 17 Sept+0.01 · roster change44.2 wins
  • 18 Sept0.00 · roster change44.2 wins
  • 19 Sept0.00 · roster change44.2 wins
  • 20 Sept0.00 · roster change44.2 wins
  • 24 Sept+0.07 · trigger not stated44.2 wins
  • 25 Sept+0.01 · roster change44.2 wins
  • 26 Sept+0.01 · roster change44.3 wins
  • 27 Sept-0.01 · roster change44.2 wins
  • 28 Sept+0.06 · roster change44.3 wins
  • 29 Sept+0.01 · roster change44.3 wins
  • 30 Sept+0.01 · roster change44.3 wins
  • 1 Oct-0.27 · roster change44.0 wins
  • 2 Oct+0.26 · roster change44.3 wins
  • 3 Oct-0.23 · roster change44.1 wins
  • 4 Oct0.00 · roster change44.1 wins
  • 5 Oct+0.28 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 6 Oct0.00 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 7 Oct0.00 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 8 Oct+0.03 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 9 Oct+0.01 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 11 Oct+0.04 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 12 Oct0.00 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated44.4 wins
  • 14 Oct+0.04 · roster change44.5 wins
  • 15 Oct-0.02 · roster change44.5 wins
  • 16 Oct0.00 · roster change44.5 wins
  • 17 Oct0.00 · roster change44.5 wins
  • 18 Oct-0.11 · roster change44.4 wins
  • 19 Oct-0.31 · roster change44.0 wins
  • 20 Oct-0.01 · roster change44.0 wins
  • 21 Oct0.00 · roster change44.0 wins
  • 22 Oct+2.42 · roster change46.5 wins
  • 23 Oct+0.01 · roster change46.5 wins
  • 24 Oct+2.09 · roster change48.5 wins
  • 25 Oct+0.44 · roster change49.0 wins
  • 26 Oct+0.26 · roster change49.3 wins
  • 27 Oct-2.48 · roster change46.8 wins
  • 28 Oct+1.08 · roster change47.9 wins
  • 29 Oct-0.15 · roster change47.7 wins
  • 30 Oct+1.38 · roster change49.1 wins
  • 31 Oct+0.30 · roster change49.4 wins
  • 1 Nov+0.80 · roster change50.2 wins
  • 2 Nov-0.45 · roster change49.7 wins
  • 3 Nov+0.39 · roster change50.1 wins
  • 4 Nov+1.19 · roster change51.3 wins
  • 5 Nov+0.27 · roster change51.6 wins
  • 6 Nov+1.62 · roster change53.2 wins
  • 7 Nov-2.85 · roster change50.4 wins

This is how the model has done in other years

Philadelphia would win about 50 games; the model gives it a margin of 40 to 61 that is not yet well measured.

We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.

From here

Forecast

Game by game: what Forecast expects from each Philadelphia 76ers game

Professional DNA

How the team behind that number actually plays

What if…?

What happened when its highest-impact player was missing
Technical detail

Uncertainty

Nominal 80% range: 40–61. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

  • worse: 40 · wins · Nominal 80% range
  • better: 61 · wins · Nominal 80% range

How this model has performed

Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.

  • Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental

The real outcome

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

The question

How many games will Philadelphia 76ers win in 2026-27?

What this does not prove

  • Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
  • It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
  • The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.

The evidence

Philadelphia 76ers: 50.4 projected wins in 2026-27

50.4 winscompared against: 45 wins (+5.35 · +12 %) · Philadelphia 76ers in 2025-26, real wins

What has changed since the first version

50.4 winscompared against: 43.1 wins (+7.27 · +17 %) · Philadelphia 76ers, first version stored on 2026-08-14

Where it comes from

Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.

  • Source: 2026-11-07
  • Model input: 2026-11-07
  • Computation: 2026-11-07
  • This answer: 2026-11-07

Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season