SportiveWorld

Forecast NBA 2026-27Portland Trail Blazers

Updated · 7 Nov

Portland rises from 42 to 51 wins.

51.5projected wins41–62forecast interval42wins in 2025-26
projected winsforecast interval2025-26
Deni Avdija

Deni Avdija

Robert Williams III is the player who weighs most in this projection: +3.1 projected impact.

The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.

How the minutes are allocated

Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov

PlayerMin/gameExpected gamesSeason minutes
Deni Avdija32.074.62,375
Toumani Camara28.277.12,157
Donovan Clingan27.475.62,058
Jrue Holiday25.467.31,700
Scoot Henderson22.766.81,506
Damian Lillard25.555.01,392
Sidy Cissoko18.168.41,230
Robert Williams III19.558.51,133
Ja Morant24.745.41,112
Vit Krejci18.848.5905
Micah Potter17.643.2755
Branden Carlson13.436.2480
Shaedon Sharpe27.316.7451
Chris Youngblood7.638.8294
Yang Hansen6.147.7290
John Tonje9.717.4168
Jayson Kent7.516.6124
Allocated minutes
18,130
Not assigned to players
1,550
Team budget
19,680

Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.

The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.

Where the allocation comes from
PlayerProbability of an opening appearanceGames conditional on an opening appearanceMinutes method
Deni Avdija100.0 %74.6History and team context
Toumani Camara100.0 %77.1History and team context
Donovan Clingan100.0 %75.6History and team context
Jrue Holiday100.0 %67.3History and team context
Scoot Henderson100.0 %66.8History and team context
Damian Lillard100.0 %55.0History before the return
Sidy Cissoko100.0 %68.4History and team context
Robert Williams III100.0 %58.5History and team context
Ja Morant100.0 %45.4History and team context
Vit Krejci100.0 %48.5History and team context
Micah Potter100.0 %43.2History and team context
Branden Carlson100.0 %36.2History and team context
Shaedon Sharpe81.7 %20.4History and team context
Chris Youngblood100.0 %38.8History and team context
Yang Hansen100.0 %47.7History and team context
John Tonje100.0 %17.4History and team context
Jayson Kent100.0 %16.6History and team context

Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 39.4 to 51.5 wins.

33.054.051.514 Aug7 Nov
See every version
  • 14 Aug39.4 wins
  • 21 Aug+0.40 · trigger not stated39.8 wins
  • 22 Aug0.00 · roster change39.8 wins
  • 24 Aug-4.45 · roster change35.3 wins
  • 25 Aug0.00 · roster change35.3 wins
  • 26 Aug0.00 · roster change35.3 wins
  • 27 Aug-0.42 · roster change34.9 wins
  • 28 Aug-0.14 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 29 Aug0.00 · roster change34.8 wins
  • 30 Aug-0.03 · roster change34.7 wins
  • 31 Aug+0.47 · roster change35.2 wins
  • 1 Sept+4.68 · roster change39.9 wins
  • 2 Sept-0.01 · roster change39.9 wins
  • 3 Sept0.00 · roster change39.9 wins
  • 4 Sept+0.02 · roster change39.9 wins
  • 6 Sept0.00 · roster change39.9 wins
  • 8 Sept-0.01 · roster change39.9 wins
  • 9 Sept0.00 · roster change39.9 wins
  • 10 Sept0.00 · roster change39.9 wins
  • 11 Sept0.00 · roster change39.9 wins
  • 12 Sept-0.01 · roster change39.9 wins
  • 14 Sept+0.10 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 15 Sept0.00 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 16 Sept+0.02 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 17 Sept0.00 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 18 Sept0.00 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 19 Sept+0.01 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 20 Sept0.00 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 24 Sept-0.02 · trigger not stated40.0 wins
  • 25 Sept+0.04 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 26 Sept+0.02 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 27 Sept-0.02 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 28 Sept+0.05 · roster change40.1 wins
  • 29 Sept+0.08 · roster change40.2 wins
  • 30 Sept0.00 · roster change40.2 wins
  • 1 Oct-2.39 · roster change37.8 wins
  • 2 Oct+0.16 · roster change37.9 wins
  • 3 Oct-0.11 · roster change37.8 wins
  • 4 Oct0.00 · roster change37.8 wins
  • 5 Oct+2.39 · roster change40.2 wins
  • 6 Oct0.00 · roster change40.2 wins
  • 7 Oct0.00 · roster change40.2 wins
  • 8 Oct0.00 · roster change40.2 wins
  • 9 Oct-0.26 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 11 Oct+0.02 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 12 Oct0.00 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated40.0 wins
  • 14 Oct+0.10 · roster change40.1 wins
  • 15 Oct-0.02 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 16 Oct0.00 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 17 Oct+0.01 · roster change40.1 wins
  • 18 Oct-0.08 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 19 Oct+0.11 · roster change40.1 wins
  • 20 Oct-0.08 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 21 Oct0.00 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 22 Oct+0.03 · roster change40.0 wins
  • 23 Oct+8.53 · roster change48.6 wins
  • 24 Oct+0.03 · roster change48.6 wins
  • 25 Oct-0.21 · roster change48.4 wins
  • 26 Oct+0.02 · roster change48.4 wins
  • 27 Oct-0.15 · roster change48.3 wins
  • 28 Oct+0.30 · roster change48.6 wins
  • 29 Oct+3.14 · roster change51.7 wins
  • 30 Oct-0.02 · roster change51.7 wins
  • 31 Oct-5.35 · roster change46.3 wins
  • 1 Nov+0.21 · roster change46.5 wins
  • 2 Nov+2.29 · roster change48.8 wins
  • 3 Nov+0.70 · roster change49.5 wins
  • 4 Nov+1.53 · roster change51.1 wins
  • 5 Nov+0.52 · roster change51.6 wins
  • 6 Nov+0.80 · roster change52.4 wins
  • 7 Nov-0.90 · roster change51.5 wins

This is how the model has done in other years

Portland would win about 51 games; the model gives it a margin of 41 to 62 that is not yet well measured.

We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.

From here

Forecast

Game by game: what Forecast expects from each Portland Trail Blazers game

Professional DNA

How the team behind that number actually plays

What if…?

What happened when its highest-impact player was missing
Technical detail

Uncertainty

Nominal 80% range: 41–62. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

  • worse: 41 · wins · Nominal 80% range
  • better: 62 · wins · Nominal 80% range

How this model has performed

Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.

  • Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental

The real outcome

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

The question

How many games will Portland Trail Blazers win in 2026-27?

What this does not prove

  • Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
  • It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
  • The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.

The evidence

Portland Trail Blazers: 51.5 projected wins in 2026-27

51.5 winscompared against: 42 wins (+9.48 · +23 %) · Portland Trail Blazers in 2025-26, real wins

What has changed since the first version

51.5 winscompared against: 39.4 wins (+12.1 · +31 %) · Portland Trail Blazers, first version stored on 2026-08-14

Where it comes from

Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.

  • Source: 2026-11-07
  • Model input: 2026-11-07
  • Computation: 2026-11-07
  • This answer: 2026-11-07

Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season