SportiveWorld

Forecast NBA 2026-27Toronto Raptors

Updated · 7 Nov

Toronto rises from 46 to 50 wins.

50.3projected wins40–61forecast interval46wins in 2025-26
projected winsforecast interval2025-26
Scottie Barnes

Scottie Barnes

Kawhi Leonard is the player who weighs most in this projection: +6.7 projected impact.

The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.

How the minutes are allocated

Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov

PlayerMin/gameExpected gamesSeason minutes
Scottie Barnes31.871.82,265
RJ Barrett27.871.81,983
Immanuel Quickley29.267.71,965
Jamal Shead21.275.81,593
Ja'Kobe Walter21.972.81,581
Collin Murray-Boyles22.371.01,574
Kawhi Leonard31.350.31,563
Jakob Poeltl22.757.61,300
Allen Graves15.364.6980
Kyle Anderson14.951.2759
Jamison Battle11.267.5751
Trayce Jackson-Davis11.661.3705
Jaden Bradley9.254.9501
Alijah Martin7.653.9405
Malachi Smith20.58.2166
Kevin McCullar Jr.9.16.559
Allocated minutes
18,150
Not assigned to players
1,530
Team budget
19,680

Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.

The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.

Where the allocation comes from
PlayerProbability of an opening appearanceGames conditional on an opening appearanceMinutes method
Scottie Barnes100.0 %71.8History and team context
RJ Barrett100.0 %71.8History and team context
Immanuel Quickley100.0 %67.7History and team context
Jamal Shead100.0 %75.8History and team context
Ja'Kobe Walter100.0 %72.8History and team context
Collin Murray-Boyles100.0 %71.0History and team context
Kawhi Leonard100.0 %50.3History and team context
Jakob Poeltl100.0 %57.6History and team context
Allen Graves100.0 %64.6Historical average by draft band
Kyle Anderson100.0 %51.2History and team context
Jamison Battle100.0 %67.5History and team context
Trayce Jackson-Davis100.0 %61.3History and team context
Jaden Bradley100.0 %54.9Historical average by draft band
Alijah Martin100.0 %53.9History and team context
Malachi Smith48.9 %16.7History and team context
Kevin McCullar Jr.48.9 %13.3History and team context

Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 43.4 to 50.3 wins.

40.060.050.314 Aug7 Nov
See every version
  • 14 Aug43.4 wins
  • 21 Aug-0.63 · trigger not stated42.8 wins
  • 22 Aug0.00 · roster change42.8 wins
  • 24 Aug-0.66 · roster change42.1 wins
  • 25 Aug0.00 · roster change42.1 wins
  • 26 Aug-0.01 · roster change42.1 wins
  • 27 Aug-0.48 · roster change41.6 wins
  • 28 Aug+0.07 · roster change41.7 wins
  • 29 Aug0.00 · roster change41.7 wins
  • 30 Aug-0.02 · roster change41.7 wins
  • 31 Aug+0.42 · roster change42.1 wins
  • 1 Sept+0.58 · roster change42.7 wins
  • 2 Sept0.00 · roster change42.7 wins
  • 3 Sept0.00 · roster change42.7 wins
  • 4 Sept+0.02 · roster change42.7 wins
  • 6 Sept0.00 · roster change42.7 wins
  • 8 Sept-0.01 · roster change42.7 wins
  • 9 Sept+0.01 · roster change42.7 wins
  • 10 Sept0.00 · roster change42.7 wins
  • 11 Sept0.00 · roster change42.7 wins
  • 12 Sept-0.02 · roster change42.7 wins
  • 14 Sept+8.04 · roster change50.7 wins
  • 15 Sept0.00 · roster change50.7 wins
  • 16 Sept+0.03 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 17 Sept0.00 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 18 Sept0.00 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 19 Sept0.00 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 20 Sept0.00 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 24 Sept+0.04 · trigger not stated50.8 wins
  • 25 Sept+0.02 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 26 Sept+0.01 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 27 Sept-0.01 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 28 Sept-0.40 · roster change50.4 wins
  • 29 Sept+0.03 · roster change50.5 wins
  • 30 Sept+0.01 · roster change50.5 wins
  • 1 Oct+0.27 · roster change50.7 wins
  • 2 Oct+0.33 · roster change51.1 wins
  • 3 Oct-0.30 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 4 Oct0.00 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 5 Oct-0.26 · roster change50.5 wins
  • 6 Oct+0.30 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 7 Oct0.00 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 8 Oct+0.01 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 9 Oct+0.02 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 11 Oct-0.27 · roster change50.6 wins
  • 12 Oct-0.01 · roster change50.6 wins
  • 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated50.6 wins
  • 14 Oct+0.05 · roster change50.6 wins
  • 15 Oct+0.18 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 16 Oct0.00 · roster change50.8 wins
  • 17 Oct-0.21 · roster change50.6 wins
  • 18 Oct-0.08 · roster change50.5 wins
  • 19 Oct+0.11 · roster change50.6 wins
  • 20 Oct0.00 · roster change50.6 wins
  • 21 Oct0.00 · roster change50.6 wins
  • 22 Oct+0.01 · roster change50.6 wins
  • 23 Oct+7.25 · roster change57.9 wins
  • 24 Oct+0.02 · roster change57.9 wins
  • 25 Oct+0.42 · roster change58.3 wins
  • 26 Oct+0.02 · roster change58.3 wins
  • 27 Oct-3.95 · roster change54.4 wins
  • 28 Oct-1.17 · roster change53.2 wins
  • 29 Oct-0.37 · roster change52.8 wins
  • 30 Oct+3.55 · roster change56.4 wins
  • 31 Oct-0.78 · roster change55.6 wins
  • 1 Nov-2.27 · roster change53.3 wins
  • 2 Nov-0.43 · roster change52.9 wins
  • 3 Nov-0.39 · roster change52.5 wins
  • 4 Nov+0.10 · roster change52.6 wins
  • 5 Nov-0.32 · roster change52.3 wins
  • 6 Nov-2.34 · roster change50.0 wins
  • 7 Nov+0.34 · roster change50.3 wins

This is how the model has done in other years

Toronto would win about 50 games; the model gives it a margin of 40 to 61 that is not yet well measured.

We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.

From here

Forecast

Game by game: what Forecast expects from each Toronto Raptors game

Professional DNA

How the team behind that number actually plays

What if…?

What happened when its highest-impact player was missing
Technical detail

Uncertainty

Nominal 80% range: 40–61. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

  • worse: 40 · wins · Nominal 80% range
  • better: 61 · wins · Nominal 80% range

How this model has performed

Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.

  • Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental

The real outcome

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

The question

How many games will Toronto Raptors win in 2026-27?

What this does not prove

  • Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
  • It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
  • The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.

The evidence

Toronto Raptors: 50.3 projected wins in 2026-27

50.3 winscompared against: 46 wins (+4.3 · +9 %) · Toronto Raptors in 2025-26, real wins

What has changed since the first version

50.3 winscompared against: 43.4 wins (+6.87 · +16 %) · Toronto Raptors, first version stored on 2026-08-14

Where it comes from

Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.

  • Source: 2026-11-07
  • Model input: 2026-11-07
  • Computation: 2026-11-07
  • This answer: 2026-11-07

Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season