SportiveWorld

Forecast NBA 2026-27Detroit Pistons

Updated · 7 Nov

Detroit drops from 60 to 57 wins.

56.8projected wins46–67forecast interval60wins in 2025-26
projected winsforecast interval2025-26
Cade Cunningham

Cade Cunningham

Jalen Duren is the player who weighs most in this projection: +5.4 projected impact.

The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.

How the minutes are allocated

Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov

PlayerMin/gameExpected gamesSeason minutes
Cade Cunningham30.574.22,249
Jalen Duren28.164.11,791
Ausar Thompson24.068.11,625
Duncan Robinson22.572.61,622
John Collins22.870.51,598
Kevin Huerter19.771.21,389
Ronald Holland II17.374.71,281
Daniss Jenkins17.868.51,212
Paul Reed17.367.41,161
Javonte Green14.668.7996
Isaiah Joe19.046.4877
Ebuka Okorie13.543.0576
Taurean Prince16.333.5543
Tolu Smith8.249.6404
Elijah Harkless13.724.5332
Chaz Lanier6.334.5214
Isaac Jones5.629.1162
Ugonna Onyenso9.211.0101
Allocated minutes
18,133
Not assigned to players
1,547
Team budget
19,680

Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.

The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.

Where the allocation comes from
PlayerProbability of an opening appearanceGames conditional on an opening appearanceMinutes method
Cade Cunningham100.0 %74.2History and team context
Jalen Duren100.0 %64.1History and team context
Ausar Thompson100.0 %68.1History and team context
Duncan Robinson100.0 %72.6History and team context
John Collins100.0 %70.5History and team context
Kevin Huerter100.0 %71.2History and team context
Ronald Holland II100.0 %74.7History and team context
Daniss Jenkins100.0 %68.5History and team context
Paul Reed100.0 %67.4History and team context
Javonte Green100.0 %68.7History and team context
Isaiah Joe100.0 %46.4History and team context
Ebuka Okorie100.0 %43.0Historical average by draft band
Taurean Prince100.0 %33.5History and team context
Tolu Smith100.0 %49.6History and team context
Elijah Harkless100.0 %24.5History and team context
Chaz Lanier100.0 %34.5History and team context
Isaac Jones100.0 %29.1History and team context
Ugonna Onyenso50.4 %21.9Historical average by draft band

Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 51.4 to 56.8 wins.

48.060.056.814 Aug7 Nov
See every version
  • 14 Aug51.4 wins
  • 21 Aug-0.22 · trigger not stated51.2 wins
  • 22 Aug0.00 · roster change51.2 wins
  • 24 Aug-1.42 · roster change49.8 wins
  • 25 Aug0.00 · roster change49.8 wins
  • 26 Aug+0.01 · roster change49.8 wins
  • 27 Aug+0.53 · roster change50.3 wins
  • 28 Aug+1.26 · roster change51.6 wins
  • 29 Aug0.00 · roster change51.6 wins
  • 30 Aug-0.02 · roster change51.5 wins
  • 31 Aug-1.75 · roster change49.8 wins
  • 1 Sept+1.37 · roster change51.2 wins
  • 2 Sept0.00 · roster change51.2 wins
  • 3 Sept0.00 · roster change51.2 wins
  • 4 Sept+0.01 · roster change51.2 wins
  • 6 Sept0.00 · roster change51.2 wins
  • 8 Sept0.00 · roster change51.2 wins
  • 9 Sept0.00 · roster change51.2 wins
  • 10 Sept0.00 · roster change51.2 wins
  • 11 Sept0.00 · roster change51.2 wins
  • 12 Sept-0.02 · roster change51.2 wins
  • 14 Sept-0.22 · roster change50.9 wins
  • 15 Sept0.00 · roster change50.9 wins
  • 16 Sept+0.02 · roster change51.0 wins
  • 17 Sept0.00 · roster change51.0 wins
  • 18 Sept0.00 · roster change51.0 wins
  • 19 Sept+0.01 · roster change51.0 wins
  • 20 Sept0.00 · roster change51.0 wins
  • 24 Sept+0.06 · trigger not stated51.0 wins
  • 25 Sept+0.02 · roster change51.0 wins
  • 26 Sept0.00 · roster change51.0 wins
  • 27 Sept-0.01 · roster change51.0 wins
  • 28 Sept+0.06 · roster change51.1 wins
  • 29 Sept+0.66 · roster change51.8 wins
  • 30 Sept+0.02 · roster change51.8 wins
  • 1 Oct-0.02 · roster change51.8 wins
  • 2 Oct+0.33 · roster change52.1 wins
  • 3 Oct-0.31 · roster change51.8 wins
  • 4 Oct0.00 · roster change51.8 wins
  • 5 Oct+0.04 · roster change51.8 wins
  • 6 Oct0.00 · roster change51.8 wins
  • 7 Oct0.00 · roster change51.8 wins
  • 8 Oct+0.02 · roster change51.8 wins
  • 9 Oct+0.01 · roster change51.9 wins
  • 11 Oct+0.03 · roster change51.9 wins
  • 12 Oct+0.01 · roster change51.9 wins
  • 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated51.9 wins
  • 14 Oct+0.05 · roster change51.9 wins
  • 15 Oct-0.02 · roster change51.9 wins
  • 16 Oct0.00 · roster change51.9 wins
  • 17 Oct0.00 · roster change51.9 wins
  • 18 Oct-0.10 · roster change51.8 wins
  • 19 Oct-0.38 · roster change51.4 wins
  • 20 Oct+0.02 · roster change51.5 wins
  • 21 Oct0.00 · roster change51.5 wins
  • 22 Oct+1.31 · roster change52.8 wins
  • 23 Oct-0.09 · roster change52.7 wins
  • 24 Oct+0.03 · roster change52.7 wins
  • 25 Oct+2.58 · roster change55.3 wins
  • 26 Oct+0.05 · roster change55.3 wins
  • 27 Oct+2.50 · roster change57.8 wins
  • 28 Oct+0.11 · roster change58.0 wins
  • 29 Oct-4.74 · roster change53.2 wins
  • 30 Oct+0.19 · roster change53.4 wins
  • 31 Oct+0.28 · roster change53.7 wins
  • 1 Nov+1.18 · roster change54.9 wins
  • 2 Nov+0.07 · roster change54.9 wins
  • 3 Nov+0.44 · roster change55.4 wins
  • 4 Nov+3.09 · roster change58.5 wins
  • 5 Nov-0.50 · roster change58.0 wins
  • 6 Nov-0.96 · roster change57.0 wins
  • 7 Nov-0.25 · roster change56.8 wins

This is how the model has done in other years

Detroit would win about 57 games; the model gives it a margin of 46 to 67 that is not yet well measured.

We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.

From here

Forecast

Game by game: what Forecast expects from each Detroit Pistons game

Professional DNA

How the team behind that number actually plays

What if…?

What happened when its highest-impact player was missing
Technical detail

Uncertainty

Nominal 80% range: 46–67. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.

  • worse: 46 · wins · Nominal 80% range
  • better: 67 · wins · Nominal 80% range

How this model has performed

Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.

  • Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
  • Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental

The real outcome

The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.

The question

How many games will Detroit Pistons win in 2026-27?

What this does not prove

  • Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
  • This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
  • It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
  • The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.

The evidence

Detroit Pistons: 56.8 projected wins in 2026-27

56.8 winscompared against: 60 wins (-3.25 · -5 %) · Detroit Pistons in 2025-26, real wins

What has changed since the first version

56.8 winscompared against: 51.4 wins (+5.34 · +10 %) · Detroit Pistons, first version stored on 2026-08-14

Where it comes from

Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.

  • Source: 2026-11-07
  • Model input: 2026-11-07
  • Computation: 2026-11-07
  • This answer: 2026-11-07

Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season