Forecast NBA 2026-27Washington Wizards
● Updated · 7 Nov
Washington rises from 17 to 34 wins.
Kyshawn George
Anthony Davis is the player who weighs most in this projection: +1.4 projected impact.
The players contributing the most projected impact to this roster. Impact is on its real scale, not a 0-99 score.
How the minutes are allocated
Roster used by the projection · 2026-27 · 7 Nov
| Player | Min/game | Expected games | Season minutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyshawn George | 25.3 | 71.6 | 1,796 |
| Bub Carrington | 23.1 | 78.1 | 1,790 |
| Trae Young | 26.6 | 64.9 | 1,716 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 22.9 | 71.6 | 1,631 |
| Deandre Ayton | 22.7 | 71.6 | 1,613 |
| Alex Sarr | 24.4 | 66.5 | 1,610 |
| Anthony Davis | 26.0 | 59.6 | 1,538 |
| Tre Johnson | 19.9 | 67.5 | 1,331 |
| Will Riley | 17.4 | 65.3 | 1,132 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 24.2 | 45.3 | 1,086 |
| Khris Middleton | 15.0 | 47.4 | 708 |
| Tristan Vukcevic | 13.5 | 39.6 | 530 |
| Justin Champagnie | 17.6 | 23.6 | 413 |
| Tre Mann | 9.7 | 35.0 | 338 |
| Reece Beekman | 11.0 | 26.9 | 294 |
| Anthony Gill | 10.9 | 25.9 | 282 |
| Felix Okpara | 8.6 | 30.7 | 262 |
| Jamir Watkins | 16.0 | 5.1 | 81 |
| Caleb Homesley | 8.9 | 0.0 | 0 |
- Allocated minutes
- 18,151
- Not assigned to players
- 1,529
- Team budget
- 19,680
Minutes per game are conditional on playing. Season minutes include expected participation and an overtime adjustment; the entire roster's minutes per game do not have to add up to 240.
The availability model is under review: it uses the probability of appearing at the start and does not yet include all late returns. This table shows the published reference, not a recalibration.
Where the allocation comes from
| Player | Probability of an opening appearance | Games conditional on an opening appearance | Minutes method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyshawn George | 100.0 % | 71.6 | History and team context |
| Bub Carrington | 100.0 % | 78.1 | History and team context |
| Trae Young | 100.0 % | 64.9 | History before the return |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 100.0 % | 71.6 | History and team context |
| Deandre Ayton | 100.0 % | 71.6 | History and team context |
| Alex Sarr | 100.0 % | 66.5 | History and team context |
| Anthony Davis | 100.0 % | 59.6 | History and team context |
| Tre Johnson | 100.0 % | 67.5 | History and team context |
| Will Riley | 100.0 % | 65.3 | History and team context |
| AJ Dybantsa | 100.0 % | 45.3 | Historical average by draft band |
| Khris Middleton | 100.0 % | 47.4 | History and team context |
| Tristan Vukcevic | 66.5 % | 59.6 | History and team context |
| Justin Champagnie | 100.0 % | 23.6 | History and team context |
| Tre Mann | 100.0 % | 35.0 | History and team context |
| Reece Beekman | 100.0 % | 26.9 | History and team context |
| Anthony Gill | 100.0 % | 25.9 | History and team context |
| Felix Okpara | 100.0 % | 30.7 | Historical average by draft band |
| Jamir Watkins | 81.7 % | 6.2 | History and team context |
| Caleb Homesley | 0.0 % | 44.9 | History and team context |
Since the first version, on 14 Aug, the projection has moved from 25.7 to 33.8 wins.
See every version
- 14 Aug25.7 wins
- 21 Aug-0.35 · trigger not stated25.4 wins
- 22 Aug0.00 · roster change25.4 wins
- 24 Aug-4.62 · roster change20.8 wins
- 25 Aug0.00 · roster change20.8 wins
- 26 Aug-0.01 · roster change20.8 wins
- 27 Aug+0.01 · roster change20.8 wins
- 28 Aug+3.28 · roster change24.1 wins
- 29 Aug0.00 · roster change24.1 wins
- 30 Aug-0.01 · roster change24.0 wins
- 31 Aug-3.08 · roster change21.0 wins
- 1 Sept+5.57 · roster change26.5 wins
- 2 Sept0.00 · roster change26.5 wins
- 3 Sept0.00 · roster change26.5 wins
- 4 Sept+0.02 · roster change26.6 wins
- 6 Sept0.00 · roster change26.6 wins
- 8 Sept0.00 · roster change26.6 wins
- 9 Sept0.00 · roster change26.6 wins
- 10 Sept0.00 · roster change26.6 wins
- 11 Sept0.00 · roster change26.6 wins
- 12 Sept-0.02 · roster change26.5 wins
- 14 Sept-0.13 · roster change26.4 wins
- 15 Sept0.00 · roster change26.4 wins
- 16 Sept-0.63 · roster change25.8 wins
- 17 Sept+0.01 · roster change25.8 wins
- 18 Sept0.00 · roster change25.8 wins
- 19 Sept0.00 · roster change25.8 wins
- 20 Sept0.00 · roster change25.8 wins
- 24 Sept+0.05 · trigger not stated25.8 wins
- 25 Sept+0.01 · roster change25.8 wins
- 26 Sept+0.01 · roster change25.9 wins
- 27 Sept-0.01 · roster change25.8 wins
- 28 Sept-0.04 · roster change25.8 wins
- 29 Sept-0.01 · roster change25.8 wins
- 30 Sept+0.02 · roster change25.8 wins
- 1 Oct-2.06 · roster change23.8 wins
- 2 Oct+0.17 · roster change23.9 wins
- 3 Oct-0.15 · roster change23.8 wins
- 4 Oct0.00 · roster change23.8 wins
- 5 Oct+2.06 · roster change25.8 wins
- 6 Oct0.00 · roster change25.8 wins
- 7 Oct0.00 · roster change25.8 wins
- 8 Oct+0.02 · roster change25.9 wins
- 9 Oct-0.08 · roster change25.8 wins
- 11 Oct-0.14 · roster change25.6 wins
- 12 Oct+0.12 · roster change25.8 wins
- 13 Oct0.00 · trigger not stated25.8 wins
- 14 Oct+0.36 · roster change26.1 wins
- 15 Oct-0.02 · roster change26.1 wins
- 16 Oct0.00 · roster change26.1 wins
- 17 Oct-0.01 · roster change26.1 wins
- 18 Oct-0.09 · roster change26.0 wins
- 19 Oct+0.04 · roster change26.0 wins
- 20 Oct+0.03 · roster change26.1 wins
- 21 Oct0.00 · roster change26.1 wins
- 22 Oct+0.03 · roster change26.1 wins
- 23 Oct+3.28 · roster change29.4 wins
- 24 Oct+0.01 · roster change29.4 wins
- 25 Oct+0.44 · roster change29.8 wins
- 26 Oct+1.08 · roster change30.9 wins
- 27 Oct+0.01 · roster change30.9 wins
- 28 Oct+0.23 · roster change31.1 wins
- 29 Oct+0.06 · roster change31.2 wins
- 30 Oct+0.19 · roster change31.4 wins
- 31 Oct+0.45 · roster change31.8 wins
- 1 Nov+1.85 · roster change33.7 wins
- 2 Nov+0.23 · roster change33.9 wins
- 3 Nov+0.73 · roster change34.6 wins
- 4 Nov+1.68 · roster change36.3 wins
- 5 Nov-0.32 · roster change36.0 wins
- 6 Nov-1.76 · roster change34.3 wins
- 7 Nov-0.44 · roster change33.8 wins
This is how the model has done in other years
Washington would win about 34 games; the model gives it a margin of 23 to 44 that is not yet well measured.
We tested it on seasons already played, knowing which players each team had: on average, we were off by about 7 wins per team.
The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.
This is an estimate with the data we have: it does not read injury reports, and a trade does not count until we run it again. Every figure comes from games already played.
From here
Technical detail
Uncertainty
Nominal 80% range: 23–44. Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- worse: 23 · wins · Nominal 80% range
- better: 44 · wins · Nominal 80% range
How this model has performed
Measured on seasons already played, not on this one. Every figure with its window and its status.
- Nominal 80% range: — · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- Coverage recorded on 12 August for the residual interval: coverage 81.30 % · Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- Average error in wins from the season simulation: average error 7.30 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
- Average error in conference seeding: average error 2.64 · 2019-2025 · n=210 · validated · rosters that actually played (information known after the fact)
- Average error in wins from the earlier, coarser method: average error 6.93 · 2005-2025 · n=555 · experimental
The real outcome
The final record for the 2026-27 season is not available yet; when it ends, we will show the actual wins alongside the projected wins, without changing the forecast.
The question
How many games will Washington Wizards win in 2026-27?
What this does not prove
- Coverage of this forecasting procedure has not yet been validated.
- This is not a betting line or a market probability: it is expected wins with a range.
- It rests on today's roster. A later trade is not inside it until the model is rerun.
- The win split does not break the schedule down game by game.
The evidence
Washington Wizards: 33.8 projected wins in 2026-27
What has changed since the first version
Where it comes from
Confidence: low · Rights: Licensed data: viewable here; ask before redistributing.
- Source: 2026-11-07
- Model input: 2026-11-07
- Computation: 2026-11-07
- This answer: 2026-11-07
Where this comes from: Team season projection · up to date · Roster the projection consumed · up to date · Player projection · up to date · Today's rosters · up to date · Game results · closed season · its clock is the season · Measured model accuracy · closed season · its clock is the season