Forecast NBA 2026-27/NBA awards

Season	Player	Team	Record	Games	Win %	Playoffs
2025-26	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Oklahoma City Thunder	64–18	82	78%	Conference finals4-3 · SAS
2024-25	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Oklahoma City Thunder	68–14	82	82.9%	Champion4-3 · IND
2023-24	Nikola Jokić	Denver Nuggets	57–25	82	69.5%	Conference semifinals4-3 · MIN
2022-23	Joel Embiid	Philadelphia 76ers	54–28	82	65.9%	Conference semifinals4-3 · BOS
2021-22	Nikola Jokić	Denver Nuggets	48–34	82	58.5%	First round4-1 · GSW
2020-21	Nikola Jokić	Denver Nuggets	47–25	72	65.3%	Conference semifinals4-0 · PHX
2019-20	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Milwaukee Bucks	56–17	73	76.7%	Conference semifinals4-1 · MIA
2018-19	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Milwaukee Bucks	60–22	82	73.2%	Conference finals4-2 · TOR
2017-18	James Harden	Houston Rockets	65–17	82	79.3%	Conference finals4-3 · GSW
2016-17	Russell Westbrook	Oklahoma City Thunder	47–35	82	57.3%	First round4-1 · HOU

Win percentage uses games actually played, including shortened seasons. Playoffs are retrospective context, not information available to voters. Historical association is not causation.

Published projections · 2026-27

Projected impact and team wins provide context. They are not award-winning probabilities or an award-specific candidate shortlist.

Teams

Data as of Oct 18, 2026 · Freshness verified

Team	Expected wins	Games	Win %	Published range
Oklahoma City Thunder	61.3	82	74.8%	50–7380%
Denver Nuggets	54	82	65.9%	42–6680%
San Antonio Spurs	53.9	82	65.7%	42–6680%
Cleveland Cavaliers	52.3	82	63.7%	41–6480%
Houston Rockets	52.2	82	63.6%	40–6480%
Detroit Pistons	51.5	82	62.8%	40–6380%
Toronto Raptors	50.7	82	61.8%	39–6280%
Los Angeles Lakers	50.1	82	61.1%	38–6280%
Boston Celtics	47.1	82	57.4%	35–5980%
Minnesota Timberwolves	45.2	82	55.2%	34–5780%
New York Knicks	44.3	82	54%	33–5680%
Philadelphia 76ers	44.1	82	53.8%	32–5680%
Orlando Magic	43.3	82	52.8%	32–5580%
Golden State Warriors	42.1	82	51.4%	30–5480%
Charlotte Hornets	40.9	82	49.8%	29–5280%
Portland Trail Blazers	39.9	82	48.6%	28–5180%
Phoenix Suns	39.3	82	47.9%	28–5180%
Atlanta Hawks	38.9	82	47.4%	27–5180%
Miami Heat	37.7	82	45.9%	26–4980%
Chicago Bulls	36.1	82	44%	24–4880%
Indiana Pacers	34.6	82	42.2%	23–4680%
New Orleans Pelicans	34	82	41.4%	22–4680%
Milwaukee Bucks	33.9	82	41.4%	22–4680%
Dallas Mavericks	32.6	82	39.8%	21–4480%
LA Clippers	32.5	82	39.6%	21–4480%
Utah Jazz	31.3	82	38.2%	20–4380%
Brooklyn Nets	28.4	82	34.6%	17–4080%
Memphis Grizzlies	28.2	82	34.4%	17–4080%
Washington Wizards	25.9	82	31.6%	14–3880%
Sacramento Kings	24	82	29.2%	12–3680%

Players

Sorted by projected impact, without applying award eligibility rules. Impact alone does not measure defense, improvement or a bench role.

Data as of Oct 18, 2026 · Freshness verified

Filter by teamAll teamsAtlanta HawksBoston CelticsBrooklyn NetsCharlotte HornetsChicago BullsCleveland CavaliersDallas MavericksDenver NuggetsDetroit PistonsGolden State WarriorsHouston RocketsIndiana PacersLA ClippersLos Angeles LakersMemphis GrizzliesMiami HeatMilwaukee BucksMinnesota TimberwolvesNew Orleans PelicansNew York KnicksOklahoma City ThunderOrlando MagicPhiladelphia 76ersPhoenix SunsPortland Trail BlazersSacramento KingsSan Antonio SpursToronto RaptorsUtah JazzWashington Wizards

Player	Team	Projected impact · BPM scale	Published range	Expected games
Nikola Jokić	DEN	+11.1	9–13.180%	64.243.9–78.1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	OKC	+9.9	7.8–11.980%	6746.7–80.9
Victor Wembanyama	SAS	+9.6	7.5–11.680%	62.442.1–76.3
Luka Dončić	LAL	+8	5.9–1080%	64.143.8–78
Giannis Antetokounmpo	MIA	+6.9	4.8–980%	51.423.1–72.3
Kawhi Leonard	TOR	+6.7	4.6–8.880%	55.535.2–69.4
Tyrese Haliburton	IND	+5.8	1.8–9.780%	36.48.1–57.3
Jalen Duren	DET	+5.4	3.3–7.580%	67.347–81.2
Cade Cunningham	DET	+4.6	2.5–6.680%	66.546.2–80.4
Donovan Mitchell	CLE	+4.3	2.2–6.480%	65.144.8–79
Jimmy Butler	GSW	+4.3	2.2–6.480%	46.818.5–67.7
Jayson Tatum	BOS	+4.1	0.2–8.180%	49.721.3–80.5
Tyrese Maxey	PHI	+4.1	2–6.180%	68.348–82
Chet Holmgren	OKC	+4	1.9–6.180%	61.841.5–75.7
Anthony Edwards	MIN	+4	1.9–680%	6847.7–81.9
Jamal Murray	DEN	+3.9	1.8–5.980%	67.847.5–81.7
Stephen Curry	GSW	+3.7	1.6–5.880%	49.321–70.2
James Harden	CLE	+3.6	1.5–5.780%	62.342–76.2
Paul Reed	DET	+3.6	0.9–6.380%	52.924.6–73.8
Amen Thompson	HOU	+3.6	1.5–5.680%	73.453.1–82

Players shown: 20/522Show all players

Ranges express projection uncertainty, not award probabilities.