Forecast NBA 2026-27/NBA awards

Season	Player	Team	Record	Games	Win %	Playoffs
2025-26	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Oklahoma City Thunder	64–18	82	78%	Conference finals4-3 · SAS
2024-25	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Oklahoma City Thunder	68–14	82	82.9%	Champion4-3 · IND
2023-24	Nikola Jokić	Denver Nuggets	57–25	82	69.5%	Conference semifinals4-3 · MIN
2022-23	Joel Embiid	Philadelphia 76ers	54–28	82	65.9%	Conference semifinals4-3 · BOS
2021-22	Nikola Jokić	Denver Nuggets	48–34	82	58.5%	First round4-1 · GSW
2020-21	Nikola Jokić	Denver Nuggets	47–25	72	65.3%	Conference semifinals4-0 · PHX
2019-20	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Milwaukee Bucks	56–17	73	76.7%	Conference semifinals4-1 · MIA
2018-19	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Milwaukee Bucks	60–22	82	73.2%	Conference finals4-2 · TOR
2017-18	James Harden	Houston Rockets	65–17	82	79.3%	Conference finals4-3 · GSW
2016-17	Russell Westbrook	Oklahoma City Thunder	47–35	82	57.3%	First round4-1 · HOU

Win percentage uses games actually played, including shortened seasons. Playoffs are retrospective context, not information available to voters. Historical association is not causation.

Published projections · 2026-27

Projected impact and team wins provide context. They are not award-winning probabilities or an award-specific candidate shortlist.

Teams

Data as of Oct 19, 2026 · Freshness verified

Team	Expected wins	Games	Win %	Published range
Oklahoma City Thunder	61.2	82	74.7%	50–7380%
Denver Nuggets	53.9	82	65.7%	42–6680%
San Antonio Spurs	53.7	82	65.5%	42–6580%
Cleveland Cavaliers	52.3	82	63.7%	41–6480%
Houston Rockets	52	82	63.4%	40–6480%
Detroit Pistons	51.5	82	62.8%	40–6380%
Toronto Raptors	50.6	82	61.7%	39–6280%
Los Angeles Lakers	50.4	82	61.4%	39–6280%
Boston Celtics	47	82	57.4%	35–5980%
Minnesota Timberwolves	45.1	82	55%	33–5780%
New York Knicks	44.3	82	54%	33–5680%
Philadelphia 76ers	44	82	53.7%	32–5680%
Orlando Magic	43.2	82	52.7%	32–5580%
Golden State Warriors	42	82	51.2%	30–5480%
Charlotte Hornets	40.8	82	49.8%	29–5280%
Portland Trail Blazers	40	82	48.8%	28–5280%
Phoenix Suns	39.2	82	47.8%	27–5180%
Atlanta Hawks	38.8	82	47.4%	27–5080%
Miami Heat	38.1	82	46.4%	26–5080%
Chicago Bulls	36.1	82	44%	24–4880%
Indiana Pacers	34.6	82	42.2%	23–4680%
New Orleans Pelicans	34.2	82	41.7%	22–4680%
Dallas Mavericks	33	82	40.2%	21–4580%
LA Clippers	32.4	82	39.5%	21–4480%
Milwaukee Bucks	31.7	82	38.6%	20–4380%
Utah Jazz	31.2	82	38%	19–4380%
Memphis Grizzlies	30.2	82	36.8%	18–4280%
Brooklyn Nets	28.3	82	34.5%	17–4080%
Washington Wizards	26.1	82	31.8%	14–3880%
Sacramento Kings	24.3	82	29.6%	13–3680%

Players

Sorted by projected impact, without applying award eligibility rules. Impact alone does not measure defense, improvement or a bench role.

Data as of Oct 19, 2026 · Freshness verified

Filter by teamAll teamsAtlanta HawksBoston CelticsBrooklyn NetsCharlotte HornetsChicago BullsCleveland CavaliersDallas MavericksDenver NuggetsDetroit PistonsGolden State WarriorsHouston RocketsIndiana PacersLA ClippersLos Angeles LakersMemphis GrizzliesMiami HeatMilwaukee BucksMinnesota TimberwolvesNew Orleans PelicansNew York KnicksOklahoma City ThunderOrlando MagicPhiladelphia 76ersPhoenix SunsPortland Trail BlazersSacramento KingsSan Antonio SpursToronto RaptorsUtah JazzWashington Wizards

Player	Team	Projected impact · BPM scale	Published range	Expected games
Nikola Jokić	DEN	+11.1	9–13.180%	64.243.9–78.1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	OKC	+9.9	7.8–11.980%	6746.7–80.9
Victor Wembanyama	SAS	+9.6	7.5–11.680%	62.442.1–76.3
Luka Dončić	LAL	+8	5.9–1080%	64.143.8–78
Giannis Antetokounmpo	MIA	+6.9	4.8–980%	51.423.1–72.3
Kawhi Leonard	TOR	+6.7	4.6–8.880%	55.535.2–69.4
Tyrese Haliburton	IND	+5.8	1.8–9.780%	36.48.1–57.3
Jalen Duren	DET	+5.4	3.3–7.580%	67.347–81.2
Cade Cunningham	DET	+4.6	2.5–6.680%	66.546.2–80.4
Donovan Mitchell	CLE	+4.3	2.2–6.480%	65.144.8–79
Jimmy Butler	GSW	+4.3	2.2–6.480%	46.818.5–67.7
Jayson Tatum	BOS	+4.1	0.2–8.180%	49.721.3–80.5
Tyrese Maxey	PHI	+4.1	2–6.180%	68.348–82
Chet Holmgren	OKC	+4	1.9–6.180%	61.841.5–75.7
Anthony Edwards	MIN	+4	1.9–680%	6847.7–81.9
Jamal Murray	DEN	+3.9	1.8–5.980%	67.847.5–81.7
Stephen Curry	GSW	+3.7	1.6–5.880%	49.321–70.2
James Harden	CLE	+3.6	1.5–5.780%	62.342–76.2
Paul Reed	DET	+3.6	0.9–6.380%	52.924.6–73.8
Amen Thompson	HOU	+3.6	1.5–5.680%	73.453.1–82

Players shown: 20/508Show all players

Ranges express projection uncertainty, not award probabilities.